Now the fun, or not, begins.

So, perhaps the US markets really did want Romney to win after all?  Obama gets a second term and the markets, after a calm start, have a hissy fit and throw their toys out of the pram. At one stage the Dow was in positive territory, then later hit -300, ending up 312 down. The UK FTSE joined the early celebration party, then caught the bad mood as the day went on.

Was it thoughts of the fiscal cliff ahead or the fact that Europe came in with some less than encouraging economic numbers that gatecrashed the party? Oh, and to top the day off the Greeks, their politicians that is, are voting again on more austerity. Not much of a party going on in Greece right now.

Of the economic numbers, the one that may well have scared the market the most was news that Germany's industrial production contracted at a faster rate than expected in September. Output was down 1.8% month-on-month, instead of the 0.7% fall expected. Now people can probably see why Germany doesn't want to take on the burden of all of Europe's economic woes and why they seem to be standing pretty firm on what others should be doing to clear up their debt mess.

Obama says the best is yet to come, if anything the markets went back to the volatility of the recent past. Fiscal cliff fears will be with the market until the politicians agree on the next cobbled together compromise as surely they must. They probably don't have much of a choice.

Panorama, undercover in the bookies, bad news for William Hill and Ladbrokes?

In recent weeks, what with the Jimmy Savile scandal, the BBC flagship current affairs programme Panorama has had bigger fish to fry than last night's expose' of the UK bookmaking industry. Here's how the BBC set the scene.

Even in recession-hit Britain, the gambling industry is still making a profit - £5.6 billion last year. With casino-style gambling now available day or night at the touch of a button in our homes and on our phones, Panorama explores its popularity... and reveals a darker side.

Reporter Sophie Raworth hears from those who have found their lives spiralling out of control, and from industry insiders who say violence and frustration, linked to fast-paced high-stake gambling machines, are increasing in our high street betting shops. Panorama goes undercover in some of Britain's bookies to test those claims.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b01nm27r/Panorama_Gambling_Nation/
(BBC Iplayer link only available for 7 days, not for those outside the UK)

The fast-paced high-stake gambling machines that is referred to above have been one of the major growth areas for High Street bookies like William Hill, Ladbrokes and others. It is also an area where politicians appear keen to focus on when it comes to increasing the taxation take. The Government in this year's budget made plans for raising more in tax from the gambling machines.

Budget 2012: New gaming machines tax 'puts 11,000 jobs at risk'

Bookmakers fear 11,000 jobs are at risk after the Government unveiled a new tax on gaming and fruit machines, which is expected to cost the industry £50m a year.

It goes on;

Video market round up for week ending 2nd November

A week ending round up of the markets from Steve Briggs YouTube channel.

A review of the markets for the last trading week, including FTSE100, S&P, Dow. This week also includes a look at UK FTSE100 shares, BG Group, Admiral and Burberry.

More videos can be found at Steve's YouTube site http://www.youtube.com/user/sjb5555.

Dow, S&P and Nasdaq, downward trends in place?

Certainly looks like all three of the major US indices are trending downwards as we head into the Presidential election. Who does Mr Market want to win?  A quick search on the web suggest's opinion is divided, but here is one view that just about sums up what is likely to happen regardless of who wins.

So, what does the outcome hold for the global equity and bond markets? Have the markets already discounted the poll outcome?

Says Dr. Andrew Freris, Chief Investment Strategist (Asia), BNP Paribas Wealth Management, “The US presidential election will involve a major political problem in resolving the "fiscal cliff" issues irrespective of who wins.”

“Just like in September 2011 when there was a short-lived bloodbath in the US markets over the related issues of the US downgrade and the raising of the fiscal ceiling, the inability (or unwillingness) of the US politicians to resolve the fiscal issues before the elections, means that after 8 November and till 31 December (the fiscal deadline), there could be a lot of volatility in all equity markets,” he adds.

“There will be some changes in policy, particularly concerning fiscal issues, but overall, despite the fact that Americans are presented with a very clear choice between Obama and Romney, I don’t think we are going to see any big shifts in any particular direction, irrespective of the outcome,” noted Alastair Newton, Senior Political Analyst, Nomura in a report dated October 29.

“For big picture policy, although the election is important, we are still going to be dealing with a deeply divided Washington, where resolving some of the major challenges facing America like long-term debt and deficit issues is going to be a severe challenge,” Newton points out.

http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/web-exclusive-us-pollsits-impactglobal-markets/194421/on

Charts;

FTSE and Eurostoxx treading water

The FTSE100 recovered slightly last week, but still looks to lack any conviction about another attempt on 6000.  US Presidential election week may either give a positive boost to sentiment or knock it the other way. The 20/50 dma crossover on the FTSE is still surprisingly positive although the index seems to be stuck in a tight range at the moment. The 20/50 dma's seem to be reflecting this tightness.

Eurostoxx index shows a rare coming together and staying together of the 20/50 dma. Usually you get crossovers confirmed fairly quickly, even the ones that fail and then go back in the other direction. The dma's being this close together suggest uncertainty. Whether this is also consolidation before another move up remains to be seen.  Still could go either way. Another point to note about the Eurostoxx is the triple top that might be heading for a quadruple top, something has to give eventually.

FTSE100

Eurostoxx50

Is WM Morrison the new Tesco?

At least in the eyes of the city when it comes to being down on a food retailer? WM Morrison is a company which seems to be attracting negative news around the city right now. It looks like the ground is being prepared for disappointment around this one when it updates the market next week. The share price has been falling, brokers have lowered just about everything to do with the company, but is the worst priced in?

Panmure Gordon expects the downgrade cycle will continue at supermarket chain Morrisons, with the group seen under-performing the market all the way into fiscal 2014.

The broker is forecasting third quarter (Q3) like-for-like sales will have declined by 0.1%, which will put pressure on the profit & loss account.

"It has already announced Q1 and Q2 like-for-like sales declines of 1.0% and 0.9% (ex-petrol) respectively. Q3 has a slightly tougher comparable, but we look for a decline of 1%. New space is expected to add around 2.1% to sales growth in H1 [first half], so total sales growth should be just over 1% (ex-petrol). The last Kantar data for the 12 weeks to September 30 had Morrison growing at 0.0%, so the risk to our forecast seems to be on the downside," Panmure Gordon reckons. 

www.digitallook.com

Does the above suggest that any slight bad news will result in a Tesco "profit warning" price fall type day for Morrison next week? Tesco fell almost 20% on the back of a poor showing in its UK market back in January, could the same happen to Morrison if the numbers are even slightly lower than expected? Even though the P/E and dividend yield for Morrison are not that demanding right now, but if the market sees a profit warning coming in then the shorters could have a field day next week.

Comet, another big name UK retailer to bite the dust?

The UK High Street may be about to lose another big name icon retailer with reports that Comet is about to go into administration.

Comet, the electrical retailer, is close to going into administration, putting about 6,000 jobs at risk, reports say.

The company, bought by private equity firm OpCapita last year for just £2, has struggled from the downturn in consumer spending.

Two weeks ago, OpCapita said it was examining a number of potential bids for 240-strong chain.

But there are reports Comet will appoint an administrator imminently.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-20164228

Comet was once part of the Kingfisher Group, which has managed so far to avoid the fate of other retailers and has actually been a case of steady as she goes with a solid performance over the last 5 years. They clearly saw that the writing was probably on the wall some time ago for Comet, competing in a crowded market place with the likes of Dixons, Currys, PC World, etc. Dixons share price this morning is up around 13% at time of writing, partly due to a last man standing in the High Street approach that suggests that once Comet has gone it will pick up some market share. Same could be said for Home Retail Group.