FTSE100 continues to go up with every brief dip being bought. Both the daily and weekly charts look bullish. On the daily chart we have just had a new 20/50 dma crossover to the upside, the same crossover on the weekly chart having been positive for some time. Bollinger Band has opened towards the upside and while the MACD is slightly extended on the daily chart it is only just crossing on the weekly chart. This suggests that even if we get a pullback on the daily, the trend remains bullish as long as the weekly MACD trends up. Certainly no sign of Sell in May so far.
Click to see charts below.
Tuesday, 14 May 2013
Monday, 13 May 2013
Monitise, a five bagger in the making?
The Monitise share price got a lift towards the end of last week after it was revealed that one hedge fund manager had come out saying that this one might be a big winner going forward.
Billionaire hedge fund manager Leon Cooperman listed some of his favorite stocks on Thursday and said the biggest winner of all might be mobile banking company Monitise.
"That's a five bagger," Cooperman, who runs Omega Advisors, said about Monitise at the SkyBridge Alternatives Conference on Thursday. "That's the one I would pick to win a contest with," he said on a panel that discussed fund manager's best ideas.http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/10/uk-hedge-fund-cooperman-idUSLNE94900120130510
Fairly confident prediction there. Perhaps one of the better blue sky opportunities out there, but those interested need to remember it has yet to turn a profit.
Saturday, 11 May 2013
Quindell Portfolio, Bulletin Boards on fire, shares continue to fall.
The sorry case of the falling share price of Quindell Portfolio continues to heat up debate on various investment bulletin boards around the web. I spent a little time yesterday reading the comments on a couple of boards, it was almost a running commentary as the share price continued to fall, ending the day a little under 6p, just about half its price of 3 days ago as bulls and bears of the stock slugged it out.
What came across however, was the almost despair of those that were invested in the stock or who had topped up as the price fell. They were catching the proverbial falling knife on a regular basis, only to see it go down further as more sellers came in.
A company RNS was issued on Thursday night regarding the 30%+ fall that happened on that day. it was meant to put a line under events - it didn't.
What came across however, was the almost despair of those that were invested in the stock or who had topped up as the price fell. They were catching the proverbial falling knife on a regular basis, only to see it go down further as more sellers came in.
A company RNS was issued on Thursday night regarding the 30%+ fall that happened on that day. it was meant to put a line under events - it didn't.
http://www.digitallook.com/news/rns/20886456-2564291/QPP-Clarification_regarding_press_speculation_htmlThe Company is aware of recent press speculation regarding the equity swap and an active short position in relation to the Company's ordinary shares. In light of this, the Board wishes to clarify that further to its recently reported record results, the Company has a strong balance sheet and continues to trade profitably with significant traction in the insurance sector.The Company knows of no valid reason for the recent share price decline. Furthermore, the equity swap asset, which has also been subject to speculation, accounts for a small part of the Group receivables and is not a material contract in relation to the size of the Group. This was issued as part of the funding for the acquisition of Accident Advice Helpline, announced on 3 December 2012 and was deemed to be the least dilutive funding mechanism at this time. It is not currently being exercised, and the Company believes that the counterparty will continue to not make any material transactions in respect of the Company's ordinary shares unless the share price is at substantially higher levels.
Thursday, 9 May 2013
Sell in May? Stock market myth or reality?
When it comes to the stock market, the old adage Sell In May return on St Ledger's Day seems to be one of those beliefs that has stuck around and stood the test of time, at least in terms that many seem to take it for granted that it is true. It appears to be like one of those sayings in life that no one ever questions, investors and traders will often refer to the old "sell in May" without ever having looked into whether it is backed up by hard data.
How did the saying come about?
So, to some degree the idea of selling in May and being out of the market for 3-4 months as a good strategy appears to be based on the notion that the market heavyweights are away during that time. In other words, most of those with money in the city are too busy on holiday spending it to be bothered with market matters. A little simplistic maybe, but that appears to be the general gist of the argument.
What does the data say?
Datastream provide historical financial data to the City and they have come up with a number of interesting truths about "Sell in May"when applied to the UK.
Evidence seems to suggest that when it comes to selling in May, anyone taking the advice is more likely to miss out on potential gains. If you are waiting for a market correction you have about a 1 in 3 chance that the market will be lower come September than now and the chances are that even if it is it's not likely to be at a crash level lower.
Perhaps this year will be different? After all, the market has had a pretty good run for the last 6 months without any significant correction. Also, the market might need a pause as we head into the end of year, which traditionally has been good for shares as we finish with the Santa rally. At some stage we are likely to see a correction, but data would suggest that we shouldn't count on the old "Sell in May" to provide it and maybe it is something that we should just forget about and ignore like an old wive's tale.
How did the saying come about?
The origins of the phrase date from the time when the City was full of toffs who became more preoccupied with the social whirl in the summer – the Chelsea flower show, Wimbledon, Royal Henley, Royal Ascot, the Epsom Derby, Cowes (not necessarily in that order) , and finally the St Leger classic at Doncaster – than earning money in the stock market.http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/56550/sell-in-may-regret-by-september--56550.html
So, to some degree the idea of selling in May and being out of the market for 3-4 months as a good strategy appears to be based on the notion that the market heavyweights are away during that time. In other words, most of those with money in the city are too busy on holiday spending it to be bothered with market matters. A little simplistic maybe, but that appears to be the general gist of the argument.
What does the data say?
Datastream provide historical financial data to the City and they have come up with a number of interesting truths about "Sell in May"when applied to the UK.
- In the 21 years prior to Big Bang 1986, the FTSE All Share index was higher by mid September in 15 of those years.
- In 1974 it would have worked well as the market fell 41.6% between May and September.
- In 1975 however, you would have missed out on a 107.4% increase between May and September.
- In just 14 of the 47 years since 1966 has the market been lower by mid September than in May.
Evidence seems to suggest that when it comes to selling in May, anyone taking the advice is more likely to miss out on potential gains. If you are waiting for a market correction you have about a 1 in 3 chance that the market will be lower come September than now and the chances are that even if it is it's not likely to be at a crash level lower.
Perhaps this year will be different? After all, the market has had a pretty good run for the last 6 months without any significant correction. Also, the market might need a pause as we head into the end of year, which traditionally has been good for shares as we finish with the Santa rally. At some stage we are likely to see a correction, but data would suggest that we shouldn't count on the old "Sell in May" to provide it and maybe it is something that we should just forget about and ignore like an old wive's tale.
Wednesday, 8 May 2013
Quindell Portfolio - Incredibly cheap or crash and burn?
Yesterday AIM company Quindell Portfolio announced annual results that you might be forgiven for thinking would set the pulses racing, especially as, at least on paper and at first glance, the fundamentals and future prospects of the company seem to look great.
Quindell Portfolio´s 2012 revenues and pre-tax profits were 10 times higher than the previous year as the company focused on earnings enhancing acquisitions.http://www.digitallook.com/cgi-bin/dlmedia/security.cgi?csi=2564291&action=news&story_id=20879086
The group, which provides expertise in software, consultancy and technology enabled outsourcing to insurance and telecommunications sectors, reported revenue of £137.6m, a 904% increase compared to £13.7m a year earlier.
Pre-tax profit rose 915% to £41.2m from £41.2m and earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) jumped 681% to £52.2m from £6.7m.
During the year, the company kept its emphasis on organic growth and profitable acquisitions in legal, health and claims.
Prior to the announcement the share had been falling slightly, but upon the news it almost fell off a cliff, or at least a small one, from around 13p yesterday to a little under 11p today.
Quindell is one of those penny share type companies that seems to have a huge loyal following if comments on many BB's are anything to go by. However, even though its share price is in the penny share league, it does actually have a market cap of around £440 million, although that seems to fluctuate wildly with every 10% this way or that way move.
Reading on those BB's also suggested that bear raider Evil Knievil, Simon Cawkwell has also bet against it. If so, he has taken on the company itself which seems to be betting the other way. The Times reported that the company itself has £13.3 million in CFD long bets on its books, which some may think is not the way shareholders money should be used, while others might think it shows faith by the management in the company's future. For the moment at least, Quindell is probably losing big time on that bet (Note - read on a BB that this had now been closed although others question this).
Friday, 3 May 2013
What type of trader/investor are you?
It's fair to say that there are many different ways of trading and investing in the markets. Often, stereotypical images emerge to describe a trader, usually someone who is a day trader or very active. This is perhaps why trading is often seen as gambling as focus is placed on short term, fast gains, but it is often overlooked that there are many different ways to trade, over different time frames and using different methods of trading, it's up to each individual to find what works best for them.
Another false image that often emerges, especially between traders and investors themselves, is the idea that you are either a fundamentalist or a technical trader. True, many do simply concentrate on one as against the other. Chartists will tell you that all you need to know about a share is already in the charts, while fundamentalists will focus on things like value, growth, valuation momentum, etc. There is a tendency that never the twain shall meet and often one side will attack the other, Chartists are seen as the equivalent of tea leaf readers, while fundamentalists, because they might never look at a chart may often just buy because they think something is cheap on valuation, although the charts might show them that the company is in a nasty downtrend, if only they would bother to look.
As a trader/investor I've often wondered where I fit in all this as the system that I've developed tends to mix both fundamental and technical analysis. For example, I won't buy a share unless certain tick boxes are ticked when it comes to fundamentals. Occasionally, especially with "blue sky" growth opportunities, I will take a punt on the technology winning through, but even here I try to avoid one trick pony companies who basically will go bust if their one trick doesn't pay off.
Another false image that often emerges, especially between traders and investors themselves, is the idea that you are either a fundamentalist or a technical trader. True, many do simply concentrate on one as against the other. Chartists will tell you that all you need to know about a share is already in the charts, while fundamentalists will focus on things like value, growth, valuation momentum, etc. There is a tendency that never the twain shall meet and often one side will attack the other, Chartists are seen as the equivalent of tea leaf readers, while fundamentalists, because they might never look at a chart may often just buy because they think something is cheap on valuation, although the charts might show them that the company is in a nasty downtrend, if only they would bother to look.
As a trader/investor I've often wondered where I fit in all this as the system that I've developed tends to mix both fundamental and technical analysis. For example, I won't buy a share unless certain tick boxes are ticked when it comes to fundamentals. Occasionally, especially with "blue sky" growth opportunities, I will take a punt on the technology winning through, but even here I try to avoid one trick pony companies who basically will go bust if their one trick doesn't pay off.
Wednesday, 1 May 2013
William Hill gallops into the FTSE100
The pending merger between Xstrata and Glencore has left a space for a new entrant to the FTSE100 and William Hill after some pretty impressive momentum in the last 6-9 months sneaked up to take it on the line. Trouble is, it is another momentum stock with stretched fundamentals now joining the 100. A year or so ago it had an impressive dividend yield of over 4% which is now around 2.5%.
Meanwhile, Ladbrokes has raided William Hill to fill a position where they are playing catch up with their FTSE100 rival.
Meanwhile, Ladbrokes has raided William Hill to fill a position where they are playing catch up with their FTSE100 rival.
British bookmaker Ladbrokes has hired Jim Mullen from William Hill to run its online operations as it tries to make up lost ground on its larger rival in the sector.
Ladbrokes' attempts to galvanise its digital business are borrowing heavily from the success enjoyed by market leader William Hill, which entered the FTSE 100 index of leading companies on Wednesday.
Mullen will have the title of director, digital when he starts work in November, Ladbrokes said on Wednesday. He worked as chief operating officer at William Hill's online operations.
Ladbrokes has formed a partnership with software developer Playtech to develop its online business, a fast expanding part of the gambling market. The companies launched a digital marketing services operation on Wednesday, to be based in the Israeli city of Tel Aviv.http://au.news.yahoo.com/technology/news/article/-/16967171/ladbrokes-recruits-william-hill-man-to-run-digital-unit/
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