Like to spread bet? Can you beat these?

I came across this article the other day which looked at some of the greatest and biggest spread bets in history. Some are funny, but for those going £1 a point there is some food for thought here.  Big bets win, but they can get you in the poor house as well, but here are some winners.  Some more by luck than judgement it would seem.

Here's a selection;

Facebook

Then there’s the one about the whale who shorted Facebook when it made its underwhelming New York debut in May. The big-hitter bet the stock would fall on May 21. The shares slumped $4, meaning that as our man had piled in for more than $8000 a point, he walked off with a profit of almost $3 million.

The bet was so huge, said one insider, that when the spread betting firm went to lay off the massive exposure, its broker insisted that the bet had to be closed that day. It duly was. In that one session, our anonymous big-hitter made returns of more than $400,000 an hour. Not bad for a day’s work.

Market indices 20/50 dma - FTSE100 under pressure - update 26

A quick update on the FTSE100.  Today's downward move is putting the lower trend line placed on the chart under pressure, MACD indicator also looks like it is heading down. The 50 day moving average is 5761 and we have just gone below that. We have reached one of those moments where it is time to look for support points below and see if they hold. A breach of 5600 could see the current trend which began back in June coming to an end. Those interested in the long side need to be careful of taking any new positions while the current down move is playing out.

Chart:

The FTSE game of relegation and promotion

Today the FTSE100, 250 and smaller companies index have a slightly different look about them because of the quarterly promotion/relegation battle that goes on which can see each index change over time.  Without going into the calculation that determines who gets promoted and relegated, these changes should be noted and if necessary acted upon by investors and traders.

For long term buy and hold investors it can be a big negative if the company that you hold gets relegated. Usually, the relegation is known well in advance, so it is possible to act before the change actually happens.  Whether you act will depend on how you see the prospects for the company going forward.  A few quarters back hedge fund manager Man Group was one of those relegated from the FTSE100 to the 250 index and since then its share price has continued to fall.  It had been in freefall for some time prior to its relegation, so the writing had been on the wall that the company was facing difficulties.

On the other hand, if you hold a company that is promoted often the share price will rise as the bigger buyers come in to add to their positions.  This probably is more the case with smaller companies promoted to the FTSE250, but also companies promoted to the FTSE100 might see some price rise as FTSE 100 funds will look to buy.

So, what changed today?

Market indices 20/50 dma - UK and Dax - update 25

It's been a quiet week on the markets which can often be a signal that something is going to happen one way or another fairly soon.  Consolidation or quiet periods are often resolved by a breakout, just a question of up or down. Right now the simple 20/50 dma upward momentum is still there and as mentioned a while back in this series of updates, once that crossover happens it can go on for some time.  The current move is a good example of how despite all the volatile bad news that may well have shaken some out and given bears hope, this upward trend has remained  fairly solid. Crash calls have come and gone as they always seem to. This trend will end at some stage, but we are now heading into a period which traditionally is good for stock markets, has this trend got the legs to take us into the usual santa rally and new year? It's a stretch, but we could still get a pullback like previous ones seen on these charts, but the trend stays intact as long as the 50 dma is not pressured for any length of time.

FTSE250

Will Sportingbet finally get a takeover bid?

For some time there has been talk that Sportingbet would be a takeover target for one of the bigger players in the bookmaking industry.  Ladbrokes pulled out of one potential bid a while back and ever since then the share price of Sportingbet had been somewhat depressed, but it had its supporters who felt that it was cheap and undervalued regardless of any potential takeover. However, the price has been flying recently and yesterday confirmation came that William Hill was in the early stages of launching a potential bid with GVC Holdings.

Any offer would be substantially in cash with an element of GVC paper. William Hill intends that the entity initially acquiring the Regulated Businesses would be a subsidiary of William Hill and not William Hill Online. GVC and William Hill reserve the right to amend the terms and structure of the possible offer in due course.

The Boards of William Hill and GVC believe that by acting in combination they represent a highly credible possible offeror for the entire Sportingbet business, substantially in cash.

No formal approach has been made to the Board of Sportingbet and there can be no certainty that any offer will be forthcoming and nor as to the terms on which any offer might be made.

In accordance with Rule 2.6(a) of the Code, William Hill and GVC must, by not later than 5.00 p.m. on 16 October 2012, either announce a firm intention to make an offer for Sportingbet in accordance with Rule 2.7 of the Code or announce that it does not intend to make an offer

http://www.digitallook.com/news/rns/20373524-14283/WMH-Response_to_recent_share_price_movement_html

There is likely to be much speculation and talk about what any bid price might be, but already there are predictions which make it substantially more than the current price of around 54p.

William Hill and GVC would not comment on the possible value of a bid but Ivor Jones, gaming analyst at Numis, suggested any potential buyer would have to pay as much as £1 a share.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/retailandconsumer/9554300/William-Hill-considers-joint-offer-for-Sportingbet.html

To some degree Sportingbet has been here before with the Ladbrokes takeover talk that saw the price rise then fall a long way when the bid collapsed.

Traders' magazine, trader Interviews issue

A while back I posted about free online trading/investment magazines, the original can be found here.

Traders' magazine was one of those included and the latest edition is an interview special with 10 popular traders speaking about their strategies – including Scott Redler (proprietary trading, T3 Group), Larry Pesavento (more than 50 years trading experience, pattern trading), Peter Milman (Hedge Fund-Startup, proprietary trading before that) Tim Bourquin (TraderInterviews website and swing trader) and Harry Boxer (Swing and day trading) to name 5. I've read a few of the interviews and it's worth getting especially as it won't cost you anything.

You might have to sign up to the site, the link and full list of free magazines can be found here.

Video market round up for week ending 14th September

A week ending round up of the markets from Steve Briggs YouTube channel.

This week also includes a look at the general retailers sector and Marks & Spencer, Next and Debenhams.

More videos can be found at Steve's YouTube site http://www.youtube.com/user/sjb5555.