Such IPO's, especially ones where the public are invited to buy are now rare. Direct Line Insurance is the latest big IPO, which while not owned by the Government, is owned by RBS the bank saved by the taxpayer from going under back in 2008. In effect, the Government does still own 83% of RBS and it wouldn't be around today if it wasn't for the taxpayer.
Wednesday, 10 October 2012
Direct Line, are the Sid's back?
Back in the 1980's when privatization was all the rage for the Conservative Government, Sid was chosen as the campaign name of the imaginary ordinary bloke in the street who just might be interested in buying into the nationalised industries that were being sold off. Millions joined in, often selling for a quick profit as they were priced to sell, BT, UK water, and British Gas to name but three (UK Water ad below).
Such IPO's, especially ones where the public are invited to buy are now rare. Direct Line Insurance is the latest big IPO, which while not owned by the Government, is owned by RBS the bank saved by the taxpayer from going under back in 2008. In effect, the Government does still own 83% of RBS and it wouldn't be around today if it wasn't for the taxpayer.
Such IPO's, especially ones where the public are invited to buy are now rare. Direct Line Insurance is the latest big IPO, which while not owned by the Government, is owned by RBS the bank saved by the taxpayer from going under back in 2008. In effect, the Government does still own 83% of RBS and it wouldn't be around today if it wasn't for the taxpayer.
Tuesday, 9 October 2012
Market indices 20/50 dma - UK markets - update 28
UK markets still seem to be going through a will it won't it phase at the moment. The charts below show a smoothness about the rise since the 20/50 dma crossover, which looks pretty relentless but clouds the uncertainty that still prevails. For the FTSE100 5900-6000 still seems to present a major area of resistance. Multiple attempts have been made to break through and they all fail. Time will tell if this trend has the legs to get us through to Christmas with a Santa rally that hits new highs. The charts for the FTSE250 and TechMARK look much cleaner and more bullish in the way the upward move since June has played out. It is easier to see them reaching new highs, although such a relentless rise can be prone to a quicker, sharper fall if things turn bad.
Bottom line is that the general trend for the markets has been up and as each stage of the financial crisis gets priced in, there appears to be less likelihood of a big drop going forward. The US elections and the potential fiscal cliff is the probably the next big hurdle. Given that politicians in the US have a habit of pushing things close to the edge before a decision is made, big time volatility might be just around the corner again, although it could be next year before we see it. It's inevitable that there will be a correction, a sell off, a downward trend happening at some stage, the question, as always, will be the extent of it.
Charts:
Bottom line is that the general trend for the markets has been up and as each stage of the financial crisis gets priced in, there appears to be less likelihood of a big drop going forward. The US elections and the potential fiscal cliff is the probably the next big hurdle. Given that politicians in the US have a habit of pushing things close to the edge before a decision is made, big time volatility might be just around the corner again, although it could be next year before we see it. It's inevitable that there will be a correction, a sell off, a downward trend happening at some stage, the question, as always, will be the extent of it.
Charts:
Friday, 5 October 2012
Tesco v Sainsbury
Earlier this week the big FTSE100 food retailers Tesco and Sainsbury squared off with updates to the city concerning their recent trading. Now that the dust has settled, it's pretty clear that Sainsbury came out the winner in the eyes of the city
Here are a few highlights from Sainsbury's 2nd quarter trading statement.
Total sales for second quarter up 4.3 per cent (4.4 per cent excluding fuel)
Like-for-like sales for second quarter up 1.9 per cent (1.9 per cent excluding fuel)
Total sales for the first half up 4.0 per cent (4.1 per cent excluding fuel) and like-for-like sales up 1.7 per cent (1.7 per cent excluding fuel)
Group sales up 1.4% to £36.0bn* (up 3.2% at constant rates); Group sales exc. petrol up 1.6% (up 3.7% at constant rates)
Statutory profit before tax down (11.6)% to £1.7bn; Underlying profit before tax down (8.5)% to £1.8bn
Group trading profit of £1.6bn, down (10.5)% - UK down (12.4)% to £1.1bn; International down (17.1)% to £0.4bn; Tesco Bank up 114% to £94m
Underlying diluted EPS reduction of (7.9)%
Interim dividend per share maintained at 4.63p
Group capital expenditure brought down from £2.1bn to £1.6bn; on track for a full year reduction to c.£3.2bn
Stats from digitallook.com.
Here are a few highlights from Sainsbury's 2nd quarter trading statement.
Total sales for second quarter up 4.3 per cent (4.4 per cent excluding fuel)
Like-for-like sales for second quarter up 1.9 per cent (1.9 per cent excluding fuel)
Total sales for the first half up 4.0 per cent (4.1 per cent excluding fuel) and like-for-like sales up 1.7 per cent (1.7 per cent excluding fuel)
Tesco on the other hand produced its half yearly report which while more or less meeting expectations didn't sparkle the share price, in fact the opposite. Fresh broker downgrades seem to have flown in, pushing the share price lower towards 300p.
Statutory profit before tax down (11.6)% to £1.7bn; Underlying profit before tax down (8.5)% to £1.8bn
Group trading profit of £1.6bn, down (10.5)% - UK down (12.4)% to £1.1bn; International down (17.1)% to £0.4bn; Tesco Bank up 114% to £94m
Underlying diluted EPS reduction of (7.9)%
Interim dividend per share maintained at 4.63p
Group capital expenditure brought down from £2.1bn to £1.6bn; on track for a full year reduction to c.£3.2bn
Stats from digitallook.com.
Market indices 20/50 dma - FTSE100 - update 27
Another slow week on the FTSE100 as it seems to be deciding what to do next. The positive side is that the downward movement that looked to be in progress a couple of weeks back seems to have stalled for now. As can be seen by the daily chart below, the lower trendline seems to be holding. MACD also looks a little more positive and the 20/50 dma crossover to the upside is still in place, but the ma's are now being squeezed as price gets closer to them. We aren't seeing much action though. Something may happen one way or another fairly soon as markets tend not to stay inactive for too long.
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| FTSE100 |
Tuesday, 2 October 2012
Public Sector Portfolio Watch - Update - QinetiQ
If you want a good example of a momentum share right now then take a look at QinetiQ.
QinetiQ was sold off by the last Labour Government in 2006 and for some time it looked like those who bought into the IPO had been sold a turkey. It came to the market at 200p a share and after an initial rise in price it has spent most of the last 6 years underwater. It is still underwater, but at 196p it is now standing in the shallow end of the pool and long term investors who bought in at the IPO might just be about to see a paper profit.
Of course, in the seven years since it came to market there have been ups and downs, but mostly down for those that bought at the wrong time, like at the IPO. However, since it dipped under a pound back in August 2011, it has been on a steady almost relentless upward rise, just about doubling in price. This has also happened against the backdrop of uncertainty in defense contract procurement going forward. According to the latest QinetiQ trading update, nothing much has changed regarding this uncertainty.
QinetiQ was sold off by the last Labour Government in 2006 and for some time it looked like those who bought into the IPO had been sold a turkey. It came to the market at 200p a share and after an initial rise in price it has spent most of the last 6 years underwater. It is still underwater, but at 196p it is now standing in the shallow end of the pool and long term investors who bought in at the IPO might just be about to see a paper profit.
Of course, in the seven years since it came to market there have been ups and downs, but mostly down for those that bought at the wrong time, like at the IPO. However, since it dipped under a pound back in August 2011, it has been on a steady almost relentless upward rise, just about doubling in price. This has also happened against the backdrop of uncertainty in defense contract procurement going forward. According to the latest QinetiQ trading update, nothing much has changed regarding this uncertainty.
Trading Environment and outlookhttp://www.digitallook.com/news/rns/20380573-38318/QQ_-Trading_Statement_html
The degree of political and economic uncertainty in both our major markets means that forward visibility for the next six months is much lower than usual, particularly in the US. However, the strong performance in the first half gives the Board confidence that the Group should at least meet its expectations for the current year, absent any material change in customer requirements. The Board's view of the outlook beyond the current year remains unchanged.
So why so bullish?
Monday, 1 October 2012
Video market round up for week ending 28th September
A week ending round up of the markets from Steve Briggs YouTube channel.
This week also includes a look at gold, brent oil and for those interested in currencies, GBP/USD.
More videos can be found at Steve's YouTube site http://www.youtube.com/user/sjb5555.
Friday, 28 September 2012
Like to spread bet? Can you beat these?
I came across this article the other day which looked at some of the greatest and biggest spread bets in history. Some are funny, but for those going £1 a point there is some food for thought here. Big bets win, but they can get you in the poor house as well, but here are some winners. Some more by luck than judgement it would seem.
Here's a selection;
Here's a selection;
Then there’s the one about the whale who shorted Facebook when it made its underwhelming New York debut in May. The big-hitter bet the stock would fall on May 21. The shares slumped $4, meaning that as our man had piled in for more than $8000 a point, he walked off with a profit of almost $3 million.
The bet was so huge, said one insider, that when the spread betting firm went to lay off the massive exposure, its broker insisted that the bet had to be closed that day. It duly was. In that one session, our anonymous big-hitter made returns of more than $400,000 an hour. Not bad for a day’s work.
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