FTSE250 has had a very good run of late, no one should be surprised if from here there is at least a decent pullback. More a reflection of the UK economy than the FTSE100, the 250 has defied bear hopes that it should be going the other way. No one should be surprised though that on the expectations of economic improvement to come, the FTSE250 is looking ahead.
Of the two charts, daily and weekly, the latter still looks the more positive. Daily MACD is suggesting that a pullback is on the cards, although it will be interesting to see if we get a period of divergence before price falls. MACD is still a long way from the zero line and the weekly chart gives more hope that this will be a pullback within the prevailing bullish trend. The 250 could lose 1500 points before hitting areas of major support at around 12100.
Charts:
Tuesday, 26 February 2013
FTSE100 Update - Risk off again?
So, it took the return of Berlusconi and the rise of another comedian in Italy's election, Beppe Grillo, to put the jitters under the markets to start this week. It had to happen, risk on having been a popular phrase for so long with the traders that you would be forgiven for thinking that markets had forgot how to fall. The FTSE survived without a whimper the UK ratings downgrade over the weekend, with talk of it being "priced in", but Italy reminds the markets of the bigger picture of Euro problems and the fact that democracy doesn't always produce what the markets would like.
However, the daily chart on the FTSE100 has been showing for a little while MACD divergence. For most of this month the MACD indicator has been suggesting weakness although it is yet to fall below the zero line and price on the chart continued to test new highs. It will be interesting to see if the FTSE can hold the lower trend line on the chart below at around 6200, but if this is finally the beginning of a bigger sell off then we shall have to see if the support points on the chart holds at around 6100 and then 5900-6000.
However, the daily chart on the FTSE100 has been showing for a little while MACD divergence. For most of this month the MACD indicator has been suggesting weakness although it is yet to fall below the zero line and price on the chart continued to test new highs. It will be interesting to see if the FTSE can hold the lower trend line on the chart below at around 6200, but if this is finally the beginning of a bigger sell off then we shall have to see if the support points on the chart holds at around 6100 and then 5900-6000.
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| FTSE100 - Daily |
Friday, 22 February 2013
£30,000 to £60,000 in three months spread betting
Interesting blog spread betting FTSE stocks which I came across yesterday, haven't read through it all yet though, link below.
Spread betting £30,000 to £60,000 in just a few months of a one year goal is quite impressive. Did note that the £ stakes per point were quite high, far more than is advisable for anyone new to the game to start off at. Also, couldn't find any details on how the shares were actually picked, fundamental, technical analysis or a mixture of both.
Blog can be found here.
http://barefootspreadbetting.blogspot.co.uk/
Spread betting £30,000 to £60,000 in just a few months of a one year goal is quite impressive. Did note that the £ stakes per point were quite high, far more than is advisable for anyone new to the game to start off at. Also, couldn't find any details on how the shares were actually picked, fundamental, technical analysis or a mixture of both.
Blog can be found here.
http://barefootspreadbetting.blogspot.co.uk/
Wednesday, 20 February 2013
Printing.com, big dividend but where's the growth?
Looking through company reports today I came across a trading statement from Printing.com.
So, the bad news is that the company expects to be "materially behind market expectations in the current year" and the market reaction reflects this with the share price moving down around 10% today. However, what was strange about this announcement was the dividend to be paid which would be at the same level of last year. At the current price that's a yield of between 8-9%, so how come?
Looking at the dividend payments for the company over recent years shows the following.
2008 3.00p 7.9% yield
2009 3.15p 13.4% yield
2010 3.15p 9.3% yield
2011 3.15p 8.6% yield
2012 2.55p 9.1% yield
Source - DigitalLook
The share price however has largely been going nowhere, around 40p back in 2008 to 29p today. No debt but profits have also been falling since 2008, yet the dividend remains high.
What is interesting about this company is that the CEO has around 8.6 million of the 47.5 million shares in issue.
Looks an interesting company, but where's the growth coming from when so much goes to the dividend, even when it is "materially behind market expectations in the current year" with profits falling each year?
Trading in the second half of the year has proved softer than anticipated across the Group's various European channels. This coupled with the increased marketing expenditure on the Group's new initiatives means that it is now likely that the Company will be materially behind market expectations in the current year.
Notwithstanding the above, the Directors maintain their belief that the plethora of new initiatives including Templatecloud.com and W3P provide sound prospects for the Company moving forward. Indeed post the last update, the first W3P Licenses have been granted in the UK. These Licenses generate monthly 'system fees' along with incremental print revenues.http://www.digitallook.com/news/rns/20707398-104241/PDC-Trading_Statement_html
At this juncture, also taking into account the Group's Balance Sheet, the absence of debt together with the underlying cash generation, the Board intends to recommend the payment of a final dividend at the same level as the previous year.
So, the bad news is that the company expects to be "materially behind market expectations in the current year" and the market reaction reflects this with the share price moving down around 10% today. However, what was strange about this announcement was the dividend to be paid which would be at the same level of last year. At the current price that's a yield of between 8-9%, so how come?
Looking at the dividend payments for the company over recent years shows the following.
2008 3.00p 7.9% yield
2009 3.15p 13.4% yield
2010 3.15p 9.3% yield
2011 3.15p 8.6% yield
2012 2.55p 9.1% yield
Source - DigitalLook
The share price however has largely been going nowhere, around 40p back in 2008 to 29p today. No debt but profits have also been falling since 2008, yet the dividend remains high.
What is interesting about this company is that the CEO has around 8.6 million of the 47.5 million shares in issue.
Looks an interesting company, but where's the growth coming from when so much goes to the dividend, even when it is "materially behind market expectations in the current year" with profits falling each year?
Tuesday, 19 February 2013
Video market round up for the week ending 15th February 2013
A week ending round up of the markets from Steve Briggs YouTube channel. Included this week is a look at the UK mining and banking sector, Randgold Resources and Barclays.
Links:
Steve's YouTube site http://www.youtube.com/user/sjb5555.
Useful charts and analysis can also be found at http://www.flickr.com/photos/stevebriggspics/
Links:
Steve's YouTube site http://www.youtube.com/user/sjb5555.
Useful charts and analysis can also be found at http://www.flickr.com/photos/stevebriggspics/
Phytopharm, when blue sky goes wrong
Yesterday the share price of FTSE Fledgling Phytopharm ended the day at around 2p having fallen over 80% on the day after reporting bad news that its clinical trials for what may be its only potential product Cogane, had no beneficial affects on patients. Today it is falling again, around 5% as of writing.
As potential blue sky stories go there are lessons here for investors and traders. Some companies are essentially one trick ponies and if the trick doesn't come off, the downside from failing can be swift and horrendous for both the company and investors. The unexpected announcement will hit a share price hard and this is especially true with the smaller companies. One time big companies, HMV springs to mind, will often have a slow, painful death once bad news sets in, but smaller companies can find themselves going under very quickly.
I quite like blue sky stories, because the potential for big gains is clearly there, but it is important to make sure that the story you are attracted to does have some merit and potential upside from a range of products or services that are attractive. Small pharma companies looking for cures that may deliver a big return if they come good, like cancer, have about as much chance as succeeding as some of the more hyped up oil or mining exploration companies. It can be a goldmine if it comes right, but total disaster when it goes wrong.
Who knows what the future holds for Phytopharm? As of yesterday they didn't seem too sure themselves. For the investor and trader, blue sky opportunities should always be a case of buyer beware and know the potential risk of what you are getting into.
As potential blue sky stories go there are lessons here for investors and traders. Some companies are essentially one trick ponies and if the trick doesn't come off, the downside from failing can be swift and horrendous for both the company and investors. The unexpected announcement will hit a share price hard and this is especially true with the smaller companies. One time big companies, HMV springs to mind, will often have a slow, painful death once bad news sets in, but smaller companies can find themselves going under very quickly.
I quite like blue sky stories, because the potential for big gains is clearly there, but it is important to make sure that the story you are attracted to does have some merit and potential upside from a range of products or services that are attractive. Small pharma companies looking for cures that may deliver a big return if they come good, like cancer, have about as much chance as succeeding as some of the more hyped up oil or mining exploration companies. It can be a goldmine if it comes right, but total disaster when it goes wrong.
Who knows what the future holds for Phytopharm? As of yesterday they didn't seem too sure themselves. For the investor and trader, blue sky opportunities should always be a case of buyer beware and know the potential risk of what you are getting into.
Another Vodafone downgrade comes in
Just when Vodafone investors thought their share price might be in the process of making a recovery, market sentiment moves towards the negative side again. First, the news that Vodafone might bid for Kabel Deutschland didn't seem to please the market and now a broker downgrade, a fairly substantial one comes in.
Meanwhile, Vodafone continues to buy up its own shares as part of its buyback plan. One assumes they don't think it will go to 135p, otherwise it might be best to wait to get a better price. On the other hand, companies probably don't try to time the market in the same way traders or investors might do, Vodafone no doubt feels that long term there will be value in buying at the current levels between 160 and 170p.
Vodafone - "damned if they do, damned if they don't".
http://www.economy-news.co.uk/shares/share-price-drivers/2730-vodafone-share-report-and-strategic-vision-questions-443545
...broker downgraded issued by Sanford C. Bernstein & Co.
Analysts at the brokerage moved Vodafone's stock from Market Perform down to Underperform - while also issuing a swinging cut to their target share price.
VOD's target now sits at 135, down from 170.
Vodafone’s European assets, which account for about 40 percent of the group operating profit, may shrink by 23 percent in the next three years, Bernstein said.http://www.economy-news.co.uk/shares/share-price-drivers/2767-vodafone-group-plc-shares-downgraded-4543545
Meanwhile, Vodafone continues to buy up its own shares as part of its buyback plan. One assumes they don't think it will go to 135p, otherwise it might be best to wait to get a better price. On the other hand, companies probably don't try to time the market in the same way traders or investors might do, Vodafone no doubt feels that long term there will be value in buying at the current levels between 160 and 170p.
Vodafone - "damned if they do, damned if they don't".
http://www.economy-news.co.uk/shares/share-price-drivers/2730-vodafone-share-report-and-strategic-vision-questions-443545
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