Saturday 16 June 2012

Will Greece leave the Euro or the EU?

There has been a lot of talk around the web that it is only a matter of time before Greece exits the Euro and maybe even the EU, especially if this weekend produces another election result with no one with overall control or able to put together a coalition.  The trouble is that despite the popularity within Greece of a further relaxing of the bailout conditions, or not to pay at all and default, other than the Communists, none of the political parties with any chance of power are arguing to leave the Euro let alone the EU.  Thus far the political will is not there within Greece even within the anti-bailout parties to argue for an exit.  There is also no process within the EU to evict a member state.

Greece could have a referendum on whether to stay in the Euro and/or EU, but all polls suggest that the Greek population are reasonably pro-Europe and want the Euro.  So, on the one hand the Greeks pretty much don't like the bailout conditions that have been set, but on the other they want to stay within the EU and keep the Euro.  Whether a compromise will be reached, a further relaxing of the bailout conditions, remains to be seen, but it seems to be a case of both the Greeks and the EU wanting to have their cake and eat it.

Whatever happens on Sunday, it isn't as clear as some are suggesting that it is inevitable that Greece will leave the Euro leading to others following suit.  I fancy that some sort of patched up compromise will eventually be reached, because no one wants the crisis that is likely to follow the alternative of a Greece exit.

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