History about to repeat itself?

Well, as predicted politicians in the US have taken the Fiscal Cliff negotiations to the edge. The political process in the US has a habit of doing this, both sides usually playing their cards close to their chest right up to the final round, then bluffing and counter bluffing, not wanting to be seen to give anything based on their principles. In reality principles are difficult things to stick with when it comes to politics, they can get you into a world of hurt when the financial markets decide they don't like them.

2008 saw a taste of that when Congress initially voted against TARP. On principle there were many good reasons to vote against it, but faced with a market backlash of big market falls, the politicians quickly got back together to say what was for many perhaps a reluctant yes. Back then the market was in free fall as the financial crisis took hold, markets falling on the back of the TARP vote was the threat of worse to come if the politicians didn't play ball.

On Sept 15, 2008, Lehman Bros filed for bankruptcy sending the Dow plummeting 504 points.

On Sept 17, the Dow falls 449 points in reaction to AIG bailout.

On Sept 29, the Dow tumbles 777 points after House votes "No" on TARP.

On Oct 3, the House passes Financial Rescue Plan (TARP) The Dow falls 818 points.

TARP now more than 90% repaid, but how?

You might have thought that a headline of TARP almost being repaid would be met by cheers in the markets and I seem to remember that at the time some thought that the money going to TARP would never be repaid or that as the financial world was ending there would be worse to come. Regardless of the rights and wrongs of the various bailouts, and there is a lot to be annoyed about in rescuing the feckless, it might come as a surprise to some that TARP is apparently 90% repaid.

The U.S. Treasury said Tuesday more than 90%, or about $380 billion, of the $418 billion spent under the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) during the financial crisis has been recovered through repayments and other income.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/tarp-program-now-more-than-90-repaid-us-2012-12-11

The trouble is, does this tell us the entire story? Perhaps not, back in July of this year it was reported that many of the banks that had borrowed TARP funds were in fact repaying with further Fed loans.

Of the 707 banks that received taxpayer money from the government's Troubled Asset Relief Program starting in 2008, also known as TARP, about half have repaid the Treasury.

However, 137 of those banks used a government-loan program to repay their taxpayer debts, according to the quarterly report to Congress of the Office of the Special Inspector General for TARP.

Of the 325 banks still propped up with taxpayer money, 203 have missed dividend or interest payments, with some missing as many as 13 payments since receiving capital injections at the height of the financial crisis, the report said. 

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/48313448/ns/business-us_business/t/many-tarp-banks-used-federal-loans-repay-taxpayer-debts/

The financial system is such that as usual all is not necessarily as it seems on the surface.