Going to try something new which I will try to get out before the start of the market week in future and that is a week ahead feature. This will focus on what is happening in the week to come, covering announcements and company news. It will not be all inclusive or just a list of dates as that can be found elsewhere, but will spotlight a few situations with comments worth watching out for.
Data:
15th April
China GDP.
16th April
GB CPI/RPI
Euro Zone CPI/RPI
US CPI
Germany Zew Survey Economic Sentiment
17th April
GB BoE minutes
US Fed Beige Book
18th April
GB Retail Sales
US Initial jobless claims
Company Announcements
Showing posts with label Debenhams. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Debenhams. Show all posts
Monday, 15 April 2013
Monday, 4 March 2013
Debenhams, snow problem
Debenhams updated the market this morning with a profit warning, which they put down to snow.
Blaming the weather seems to be a regular tactic from High Street retailers, especially in winter, when things go wrong. Unfortunately such excuses, especially when snow is mentioned as the specific reason, opens them up to ridicule. After all, some retailers did ok, the snow didn't seem to affect them. Of course, this might be simplistic as some areas of the country had bad weather while others had it more mild. One major retailer near where I live I find I cannot get to if there are several days of rain beforehand because flooding usually makes the only route other than a long time consuming journey around it, impassable. When that happens I shop elsewhere and they lose my custom, I'm sure for others its the same.
The trouble is that blaming snow in winter comes across as a lame excuse, because, well, we are likely to have snow in cold weather. Fair enough, say that bad weather probably encouraged people to decide to stay at home in the warmth, after all, judging from Centrica's recent profits announcement that's exactly what a lot of people must have done, but they should leave the snow out of it. Bricks and mortar retailers have no choice but to live with the weather good or bad.
http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/news/market-news/market-news-detail.html?announcementId=11506189The strong sales momentum reported on 8 January 2013, with Group like-for-like sales up 2.9% for the first 18 weeks of the half, initially continued at a similar level with Debenhams making further market share gains in key categories*.In the latter part of January, however, the UK business was severely disrupted by the snow which fell across the country. Whilst Group like-for-like sales grew by c.3% for the 26 weeks, during the snow-affected period of 14-27 January UK like-for-like sales were down by c.10%.
Blaming the weather seems to be a regular tactic from High Street retailers, especially in winter, when things go wrong. Unfortunately such excuses, especially when snow is mentioned as the specific reason, opens them up to ridicule. After all, some retailers did ok, the snow didn't seem to affect them. Of course, this might be simplistic as some areas of the country had bad weather while others had it more mild. One major retailer near where I live I find I cannot get to if there are several days of rain beforehand because flooding usually makes the only route other than a long time consuming journey around it, impassable. When that happens I shop elsewhere and they lose my custom, I'm sure for others its the same.
The trouble is that blaming snow in winter comes across as a lame excuse, because, well, we are likely to have snow in cold weather. Fair enough, say that bad weather probably encouraged people to decide to stay at home in the warmth, after all, judging from Centrica's recent profits announcement that's exactly what a lot of people must have done, but they should leave the snow out of it. Bricks and mortar retailers have no choice but to live with the weather good or bad.
Friday, 18 January 2013
ASOS, a short seller's nightmare and potential dream.
ASOS is one of those stock market stories where you wonder how does it manage to maintain stock market gravity with its share price? For those that don't know it is an online fashion retailer listed on AIM. It has just announced its latest Christmas trading which on the surface looks good.
Its last pre-tax profit listed on DigitalLook was £13.24 million, in total for 2012 it was £47.59 million and expected to grow going forward, ASOS is a retailing success story. However, its share price stands at 2714p, P/E over 90 and a market cap of around £2.225 bllion! That's a market cap that would put it in the top 50 of the FTSE250. Well known competitors Debenhams currently has a market cap around £1.300 billion, Brown N Group, just over £1 billion, ASOS is valued at just about the same as both of these put together. And although in a totally different retailing sector, Dixons is valued at £986 million.
Still, despite the valuation it has been a bit of a nightmare for anyone wanting to short it. There is lots of good news and sentiment in the price, but with that valuation it needs to continue to grow and impress, one bad result or perceived poor showing could see this one go south big time. For now however, you need pretty deep pockets to short this one with any confidence and if you are a bull, deep confidence to be sure it can keep going.
A good analysis can be found here;
http://tradingresearchpoint.co.uk/2013/01/18/asos-trading-statement-evil-knievil-and-the-bears-will-carry-on-getting-burned/
British online fashion retailer Asos on Thursday posted a 41 per cent rise in sales over the Christmas period as reduced prices lured shoppers.http://www.digitallook.com/cgi-bin/dlmedia/security.cgi?csi=38216&action=news&story_id=20629286
Asos, aimed at twenty-somethings, said global retail sales in December climbed to £78.1m year-on-year for the month ended December 31st.
Christmas sales were strongest in the group’s overseas market with a 57% increase in the US and 42% elsewhere, while UK sales jumped 34%.
Its last pre-tax profit listed on DigitalLook was £13.24 million, in total for 2012 it was £47.59 million and expected to grow going forward, ASOS is a retailing success story. However, its share price stands at 2714p, P/E over 90 and a market cap of around £2.225 bllion! That's a market cap that would put it in the top 50 of the FTSE250. Well known competitors Debenhams currently has a market cap around £1.300 billion, Brown N Group, just over £1 billion, ASOS is valued at just about the same as both of these put together. And although in a totally different retailing sector, Dixons is valued at £986 million.
Still, despite the valuation it has been a bit of a nightmare for anyone wanting to short it. There is lots of good news and sentiment in the price, but with that valuation it needs to continue to grow and impress, one bad result or perceived poor showing could see this one go south big time. For now however, you need pretty deep pockets to short this one with any confidence and if you are a bull, deep confidence to be sure it can keep going.
A good analysis can be found here;
http://tradingresearchpoint.co.uk/2013/01/18/asos-trading-statement-evil-knievil-and-the-bears-will-carry-on-getting-burned/
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)