Video market round up for week ending 26th October

A week ending round up of the markets from Steve Briggs YouTube channel.

A review of the markets for the last trading week, including FTSE100, S&P, Dow, Nasdaq, AUD/USD, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, Gold and Silver. This week also includes a look at US shares, Facebook, Apple, Amazon, UK shares ARM and AMEC. There is also a look at the General Retailers and Oil Equipment and Distribution sector.

More videos can be found at Steve's YouTube site http://www.youtube.com/user/sjb5555.

Dow touches the 200 dma

Although the US markets are currently closed due to Hurricane Sandy, futures are suggesting that the Dow is now sitting on its 200 dma.  In the past it has bounced from here, but the last time back in July/August the 20/50 dma had just gone positive whereas now it is in a crossover to the negative side. There is more negative in the current Dow daily chart than positive, but it will be interesting to see if and when any rally comes how strong it will be. The Presidential election may have something to say about that.

Dow

Would you prefer a market crash or correction?

I don't usually get involved that much on forums, other blogs, etc (mainly due to time and probably being too lazy to bother!), but occasionally I will join in a debate elsewhere. I came across an article over at the Motley Fool called Note to market please crash and posted a few responses, partly to see if people really do like to buy when share prices are falling i.e. prices are now cheap and thus jump in and catch a falling knife regardless. In the event of a market crash I've always felt that it is better to wait and buy when the charts are giving some indication of a bottom and reverse in the trend, the dust has settled. Buying against the trend can often be a nasty experience for your wallet and we've all done it! Sure, things may come back, they often do, but it isn't the right way to do things.

I get the feeling that some, mainly investors using fundamental analysis, don't like or bother with charts. There is a view that technical analysis is hocus pocus or doesn't work, whereas I tend to feel that more often than not it is our own psychology trying to interpret the action a chart is showing that doesn't work (I've been there!) I also believe that even if you are an investor who makes their choice on fundamentals, charts can help you to time your buy (what time frame are you trading investing in?). This is not the same as trying to time the market, it is about buying when the probability of the direction of the market trend is on your side. Charts tell us this as all they show is a reflection of human behaviour in a chart form - traders and investors - buying and selling. By and large, price and trend going up = more buyers than sellers, more demand, while price and trend going down = more sellers, less demand. There may well be some price manipulation of varying kinds along the way, but for the most part it isn't that difficult to understand why price goes up and down, it's supply and demand and a large dose of sentiment.

Market update - UK Techmark and Nasdaq

The Nasdaq index seems to be leading the way down if we are about to see a turn in the markets.  I've been regularly posting these 20/50 dma posts as an example to show the current trend. 20/50 crossovers are often good for many weeks or even several months, but they are lagging and should only be used as a general guide to trend.  Question is, are we now in for several weeks or months of a downward trend?  The Nasdaq is certainly looking weak, not helped by some poor earnings coming through.

The UK TechMark still seems undecided as to its next move, FTSE100 company Arm Holdings producing a good result the other day. The TechMark looks like it still has room to bounce back, but is it likely to do so if the Nasdaq continues to fall? For once, these charts look slightly out of synch with each other.

Nasdaq

TechMARK

Video market round up for week ending 19th October

A week ending round up of the markets from Steve Briggs YouTube channel.

A review of the markets for the last trading week, including FTSE100, Dow, Nasdaq, AUD/USD, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, Gold and Silver.

More videos can be found at Steve's YouTube site http://www.youtube.com/user/sjb5555.

Market update, Dow, S&P, Nasdaq

About a week ago I was reading that during this reporting season most companies had come in beating or in line with expectations, however this seems to have changed for the worse.

ADVFN reported this morning the following.

That following the sharp drops seen last Friday on Wall Street, with some observers now fearing that recent poor company earnings from several technology heavyweights -such as IBM or Google- may be a harbinger of economic weakness to come. That, at last, is what some analysts are saying as the corporate confession season trundles on.

To be had in account, this week will see another deluge of company earnings in the US, with those in Europe progressively ramping up.

According to Thomson Reuters data, out of the 8% of companies on the STOXX Europe 600 index that have reported results so far, 48% have missed forecasts.

Back in the US, of the 116 S&P 500 companies which have confessed thus far, 58% have missed on revenue expectations, as the economy took a tool on their results.

The Nasdaq seems to be leading the way on turning negative with the 20/50 crossing over to the downside. The Dow and S&P seem to be clinging on, much may well depend on how Caterpillar, Texas Instruments and Yahoo do when they report this week.

Nasdaq

Market update, FTSE 100, 250, Eurostoxx 50

We still seem to be in wait and see mode for the next market move, although increasingly things are pointing to the downside.  The basic 20/50 dma seems to be getting closer together as time goes on, the Eurostoxx index after a pretty decent run looking the weakest for a negative crossover. This type of squeeze on the moving averages is quite common before either a bounce back saving the current trend, or a crossover in the opposite direction indicating a trend change.

FTSE250 and Eurostoxx are also showing signs of a triple top, while the FTSE100 is on a double top.

FTSE100

Ignore the "experts"!

I've long been a follower of Robbie Burns Naked Trader website.  Here is a trader who has had amazing success over the years, who has managed to find a system that works for him and is reaping the benefits of joining the 10% or so that manage to make money trading. One of the amazing things about Burns is that he has consistently managed to be successful even during the financial crash.  If anything he has had his best years since 2007 and most of the time he has been on the long side. He doesn't claim to know anything about economics either and hasn't let the prevailing doom and gloom of the last 4-5 years get in the way of trading well.

Occasionally he comes up with little gems of sound advice which everyone should take heed of.  Take this from his latest update.

I got some Direct Line shares (DLG) in the IPO picking up 2,800 shares at the offer price of 175. Turns out this IPO is going to turn out okay.

One of the reasons I decided to go for Direct Line was that Investors Chronicle, Shares Magazine and most of the newspapers said not to buy it or sell it at the opening.

Doing the opposite of what so called "experts" tells you usually works out well so I bought! Going well so far! Might keep them longer term and there is a nice dividend.

Same with bulletin boards - just do the opposite of what anyone puts on those and you'll make some dough!

http://www.nakedtrader.co.uk/

Video market round up for week ending 12th October

A week ending round up of the markets from Steve Briggs YouTube channel.

A review of the markets for the last trading week, including GBP/USD, EUR/USD, gold, banking sector, gas, water & multi-utility sector, Severn Trent.

More videos can be found at Steve's YouTube site http://www.youtube.com/user/sjb5555.

Sportingbet, William Hill, GVC takeover update

Looks like this one may go to the wire, but the latest offer isn't that much of an improvement on the old one. Unless there is a change of heart it would seem that William Hill and GVC don't believe Sportingbet is worth as much as some analysts have suggested. This one could easily fall through.

WILLIAM HILL’S proposed takeover of online bookie Sportingbet looks set to go down to the wire this week, after the Sportingbet board knocked back a second bid for the company last week.

Sources close to negotiations said yesterday that William Hill, together with GVC Holdings, made an improved informal bid for Sportingbet late last week, after a formal offer of 52.5p per share was rejected last month. The new offer, at over 55p a share, was a significant improvement but still short of the 60p or more that Sportingbet wants. 

http://www.cityam.com/latest-news/second-william-hill-bid-rejected-sportingbet

They have until tomorrow to make a bigger offer or at least show that both sides want to keep on talking. Sportingbet is down around 5% so it looks like the market may well have decided it isn't likely to happen.

Original post can be found here;

Will Sportingbet finally get a takeover bid?

http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=4285330955624173039#editor/target=post;postID=2500241780786594703

UPDATE

Market Update - FTSE100

FTSE100 still seems to be undecided about the next move, but that may not be for long. The lower trend line has been broken, MA's look weaker, chart looks more negative than positive, but nothing dramatic has happened in the last couple of weeks. The market has been quiet which might indicate the calm before a storm, or the set up is in place for a December Santa rally. We look to be approaching a key moment as to where the markets are going next.

Greece, not all doom and gloom it would seem

I came across one story today which may surprise some people.  Surprise, if only because we don't expect to read anything about Greece which isn't doom and gloom at the moment.  Many might not know that recently the Greek stock market has been mounting a bit of a comeback.

From the Daily Wealth.

One month ago, we challenged readers with a question… Is Greece better off today than it was four months ago? 

We may have our answer... Yesterday, the Greek stock market challenged its high for the year.

The Athens General Share Index (ATG) is now 22% higher than where it started 2012. And it's up 73% since bottoming just four months ago.

The financial press might write headlines about a crushing debt load, 60% unemployment, and rioting in the streets. But when it comes to Greece, this chart might be the biggest story of the year...

http://www.dailywealth.com/

I also came across this on Bloomberg.

Direct Line, are the Sid's back?

Back in the 1980's when privatization was all the rage for the Conservative Government, Sid was chosen as the campaign name of the imaginary ordinary bloke in the street who just might be interested in buying into the nationalised industries that were being sold off.  Millions joined in, often selling for a quick profit as they were priced to sell, BT, UK water, and British Gas to name but three (UK Water ad below).

Such IPO's, especially ones where the public are invited to buy are now rare.  Direct Line Insurance is the latest big IPO, which while not owned by the Government, is owned by RBS the bank saved by the taxpayer from going under back in 2008. In effect, the Government does still own 83% of  RBS and it wouldn't be around today if it wasn't for the taxpayer.

Market indices 20/50 dma - UK markets - update 28

UK markets still seem to be going through a will it won't it phase at the moment.  The charts below show a smoothness about the rise since the 20/50 dma crossover, which looks pretty relentless but clouds the uncertainty that still prevails. For the FTSE100 5900-6000 still seems to present a major area of resistance. Multiple attempts have been made to break through and they all fail. Time will tell if this trend has the legs to get us through to Christmas with a Santa rally that hits new highs. The charts for the FTSE250 and TechMARK look much cleaner and more bullish in the way the upward move since June has played out. It is easier to see them reaching new highs, although such a relentless rise can be prone to a quicker, sharper fall if things turn bad.

Bottom line is that the general trend for the markets has been up and as each stage of the financial crisis gets priced in, there appears to be less likelihood of a big drop going forward. The US elections and the potential fiscal cliff is the probably the next big hurdle. Given that politicians in the US have a habit of pushing things close to the edge before a decision is made, big time volatility might be just around the corner again, although it could be next year before we see it. It's inevitable that there will be a correction, a sell off, a downward trend happening at some stage, the question, as always, will be the extent of it.

Charts:

Tesco v Sainsbury

Earlier this week the big FTSE100 food retailers Tesco and Sainsbury squared off with updates to the city concerning their recent trading. Now that the dust has settled, it's pretty clear that Sainsbury came out the winner in the eyes of the city

Here are a few highlights from Sainsbury's 2nd quarter trading statement.

Total sales for second quarter up 4.3 per cent (4.4 per cent excluding fuel)

Like-for-like sales for second quarter up 1.9 per cent (1.9 per cent excluding fuel)

Total sales for the first half up 4.0 per cent (4.1 per cent excluding fuel) and like-for-like sales up 1.7 per cent (1.7 per cent excluding fuel)

Tesco on the other hand produced its half yearly report which while more or less meeting expectations didn't sparkle the share price, in fact the opposite. Fresh broker downgrades seem to have flown in, pushing the share price lower towards 300p.

Group sales up 1.4% to £36.0bn* (up 3.2% at constant rates); Group sales exc. petrol up 1.6% (up 3.7% at constant rates)

Statutory profit before tax down (11.6)% to £1.7bn; Underlying profit before tax down (8.5)% to £1.8bn

Group trading profit of £1.6bn, down (10.5)% - UK down (12.4)% to £1.1bn; International down (17.1)% to £0.4bn; Tesco Bank up 114% to £94m

Underlying diluted EPS reduction of (7.9)%

Interim dividend per share maintained at 4.63p

Group capital expenditure brought down from £2.1bn to £1.6bn; on track for a full year reduction to c.£3.2bn

Stats from digitallook.com.

Market indices 20/50 dma - FTSE100 - update 27

Another slow week on the FTSE100 as it seems to be deciding what to do next.  The positive side is that the downward movement that looked to be in progress a couple of weeks back seems to have stalled for now.  As can be seen by the daily chart below, the lower trendline seems to be holding.  MACD also looks a little more positive and the 20/50 dma crossover to the upside is still in place, but the ma's are now being squeezed as price gets closer to them.  We aren't seeing much action though. Something may happen one way or another fairly soon as markets tend not to stay inactive for too long.

FTSE100

Public Sector Portfolio Watch - Update - QinetiQ

If you want a good example of a momentum share right now then take a look at QinetiQ.

QinetiQ was sold off by the last Labour Government in 2006 and for some time it looked like those who bought into the IPO had been sold a turkey.  It came to the market at 200p a share and after an initial rise in price it has spent most of the last 6 years underwater.  It is still underwater, but at 196p it is now standing in the shallow end of the pool and long term investors who bought in at the IPO might just be about to see a paper profit.

Of course, in the seven years since it came to market there have been ups and downs, but mostly down for those that bought at the wrong time, like at the IPO.  However, since it dipped under a pound back in August 2011, it has been on a steady almost relentless upward rise, just about doubling in price. This has also happened against the backdrop of uncertainty in defense contract procurement going forward. According to the latest QinetiQ trading update, nothing much has changed regarding this uncertainty.

Trading Environment and outlook

The degree of political and economic uncertainty in both our major markets means that forward visibility for the next six months is much lower than usual, particularly in the US. However, the strong performance in the first half gives the Board confidence that the Group should at least meet its expectations for the current year, absent any material change in customer requirements. The Board's view of the outlook beyond the current year remains unchanged.

http://www.digitallook.com/news/rns/20380573-38318/QQ_-Trading_Statement_html

So why so bullish?

Video market round up for week ending 28th September

A week ending round up of the markets from Steve Briggs YouTube channel.

This week also includes a look at gold, brent oil and for those interested in currencies, GBP/USD.

More videos can be found at Steve's YouTube site http://www.youtube.com/user/sjb5555.