Friday, 19 October 2012

Ignore the "experts"!

I've long been a follower of Robbie Burns Naked Trader website.  Here is a trader who has had amazing success over the years, who has managed to find a system that works for him and is reaping the benefits of joining the 10% or so that manage to make money trading. One of the amazing things about Burns is that he has consistently managed to be successful even during the financial crash.  If anything he has had his best years since 2007 and most of the time he has been on the long side. He doesn't claim to know anything about economics either and hasn't let the prevailing doom and gloom of the last 4-5 years get in the way of trading well.

Occasionally he comes up with little gems of sound advice which everyone should take heed of.  Take this from his latest update.
I got some Direct Line shares (DLG) in the IPO picking up 2,800 shares at the offer price of 175. Turns out this IPO is going to turn out okay.

One of the reasons I decided to go for Direct Line was that Investors Chronicle, Shares Magazine and most of the newspapers said not to buy it or sell it at the opening.

Doing the opposite of what so called "experts" tells you usually works out well so I bought! Going well so far! Might keep them longer term and there is a nice dividend.

Same with bulletin boards - just do the opposite of what anyone puts on those and you'll make some dough!
http://www.nakedtrader.co.uk/


Not sure about Direct Line, although he is right about the potential dividend. Having said that, I wouldn't claim to be an expert and the Naked Trader's success puts him in a different league to most of us, so what do I know?  I do agree with him totally on bulletin boards and forums though. Sorting through the wheat and chaff on forums can be time consuming and a dead end. Really good posters who may be worth following are rare and too many often have their own axe to grind.

Forums seem to be full of alpha male (female as well?) types looking to make a name for themselves. The worst are those on investment forums that have a political or economic bias that means their "predictions" for markets, other than their own personal favorite market which only ever goes up of course, are invariably of the doom and gloom variety. It's almost against their religion to actually call the upside, even when it is obvious that a trend is up they are always looking for a crash. Market bulls can be the same, but these days there seem to be less of them, forums seem to be dominated by bears, mostly of a certain libertarian political persuasion and economic outlook.

Of course, blogs can be the same, which is why I would say take everything written here at face value and do your own research on anything that may be of interest as a result of what you may read.

Ignore the experts and do the opposite? Perhaps not always, after all, Burns is one expert trader that it might be worth taking notice of, although he would probably be the first to tell you that you should not follow anyone blindly.

2 comments:

  1. He comes up with some interesting names which are often worth a further look. He mentions DIVI which is an interesting small company investment trust which aims to provide 4% dividend yield.

    I get the impression now that he is using the site to sell investment courses which is where he makes more money than actual trading which makes me a little suspicious.

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    Replies
    1. I had a look at DIVI. It has had quite a run recently and the div yield right now is only around 2.2% so not great when you can get 6% with Vodafone. DIVI may well offer better capital growth, but if the intention is dividend growth then you want better than 2%? It's share price is behaving more like a smaller company growth fund at the moment.

      Given that most of NT's trading tends to be in tax free or efficient options, ISA's,Sipps, spread betting and given his results, I doubt he makes more from his business side which is the seminars. He probably earns well from it, but it would cost him to run them and they would be taxed. It's not like he's doing 1/2 courses a week, although due to demand he does seem to be doing more of them. I think he's one of the few traders offering genuine courses on a system that actually works out there (of course, like anything it might not work for everyone). He could probably make a ton of money from selling dvd's,or doing it online, but chooses not to.

      Another company he mentioned which looks quite good is Optos. I might put up a separate post on this one as it looks to have raised some interest with its new technology. Could be one to get in early on.


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