History about to repeat itself?

Well, as predicted politicians in the US have taken the Fiscal Cliff negotiations to the edge. The political process in the US has a habit of doing this, both sides usually playing their cards close to their chest right up to the final round, then bluffing and counter bluffing, not wanting to be seen to give anything based on their principles. In reality principles are difficult things to stick with when it comes to politics, they can get you into a world of hurt when the financial markets decide they don't like them.

2008 saw a taste of that when Congress initially voted against TARP. On principle there were many good reasons to vote against it, but faced with a market backlash of big market falls, the politicians quickly got back together to say what was for many perhaps a reluctant yes. Back then the market was in free fall as the financial crisis took hold, markets falling on the back of the TARP vote was the threat of worse to come if the politicians didn't play ball.

On Sept 15, 2008, Lehman Bros filed for bankruptcy sending the Dow plummeting 504 points.

On Sept 17, the Dow falls 449 points in reaction to AIG bailout.

On Sept 29, the Dow tumbles 777 points after House votes "No" on TARP.

On Oct 3, the House passes Financial Rescue Plan (TARP) The Dow falls 818 points.

Investors still lacking market confidence?

As we head towards 2013 with the FTSE approaching another attempt on 6000 and US politicians still talking over their fiscal cliff, it shows how much a confidence game investing and trading in shares is that a recent report suggests that investors still haven't totally bought into the recovery in markets since 2009 regardless of how strong it may look.

Assets in equity mutual, exchange-traded and closed-end funds increased about 85 percent to $5.6 trillion since the bull market began in March 2009, trailing the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index’s 94 percent advance, according to data compiled by Bloomberg and Morningstar Inc.

The retreat shows that even the biggest gain since 1998 failed to heal investor confidence after the financial collapse that wiped out $11 trillion in U.S. equity value was followed by record price swings in equities, a market breakdown that briefly erased $862 billion in share value and the slowest recovery from a recession since World War II. Individuals are withdrawing money as political leaders struggle to avert budget cuts that threaten to throw the economy into a new slump.

“Our biggest liability in the stock market has been the total destruction to confidence,” James Paulsen, the chief investment strategist at Minneapolis-based Wells Capital Management, which oversees about $325 billion, said in a telephone interview. “There’s just so much evidence of this recovery broadening.” 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-24/americans-miss-200-billion-abandoning-stocks.html

What applies to the US could equally apply to the UK. The FTSE may be knocking on the door of 6000, but that is still some way off the 6750 or so back in 2007 and a long way off the almost magical 7000 mark back in 1999. So, it has been a tough 12 years or so for UK shares and tougher to make money when there are so many bigger issue economic matters that always seem to put a stop on the possibility of markets going higher, they seem to be in a constant state of trying to get back to where they once were mode.

The fact is, and the internet, forum and blog comment is often a good guide to this, many people will have missed this bounce since 2009 because they probably thought worse was to come, the financial and economic world was at an end, never ending crisis to follow. Plenty of evidence shows how poor shares have been as an investment in recent times in the UK.

An HMV lifeline, sharing the loss.

Interesting story in the press about HMV and the potential cost to others from a shared liability with its suppliers should the High Street minnow go under. It could be as much as £150 million owed due to an old agreement made when HMV was part of EMI.

EMI guaranteed rental agreements on HMV stores when the retailer was spun out of the record label in 1998. It is understood that Universal then assumed these guarantees when it acquired troubled EMI.

The bill would only reach £150m if HMV collapsed into administration and the stores were not re-let. However, the precarious state of Britain's high street means demand for shops is fragile. 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/retailandconsumer/9766168/HMV-survival-boost-from-suppliers-liable-for-150m.html

Perhaps this explains why some of  HMV's suppliers are keen for the last man standing on the High Street in entertainment retailing to survive and why just before Christmas they stepped in with financial help. It might be cheaper for them to continue to support the company as a loss making concern that might just turn things around in time. On the other hand, much will depend on the banks and whether they are prepared to keep the financial lifeline going after HMV reports to them in January.

Update, 31/12/12

This is an interesting development;

HMV’s lenders plan to block efforts by turnaround fund Apollo to buy the firm’s debt as they plot a revival of its fortunes.

Music industry sources said Apollo Global Management had been planning to buy the retailer’s debt, which would give it control of HMV.

Apollo has already acquired ten per cent of the debt and must now negotiate with about six banks.

However, the lenders are understood to be reluctant to sell their loans too cheaply and are still hopeful that HMV can survive without a takeover.

A source said: ‘There is a feeling among the banks that they have come this far, so let’s see it through.’

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/news/article-2254598/Lenders-debt-battle-plan-HMV-revival.html?ito=feeds-newsxml

Market update - A sea of red

So, after a period of Fiscal Cliff hope the markets are a sea of red this morning on the news that a Republican Plan B to reduce taxes couldn't even get enough votes from Republicans to get through Congress. However, with markets falling like a stone on such news it really does show how dumb they can be. Dumb because even though the markets seem to be going up on the news of this Plan B, it was clear from the start it was never going to get very far, President Obama had already clearly said if it got through he would veto it. 

Why then were markets going up on such news that would have lead to a sell off anyway? Plan B was never going to get anywhere yet markets were rising on false hopes. I suppose that is the way markets work, if you are looking for logic and rational behaviour then look elsewhere. At this stage with the politicians doing their usual let's take it right up to the wire act because that is what we always do as we play the game of politics, markets were clinging on to any hope. Still, the charts were showing that the current run was extended, for it to go further and extend the gains of the early Santa rally, more Fiscal Cliff good news was needed, even if a Plan B vote was doomed to fail the markets were clinging to anything.

So, FTSE 6000 which seemed very near just a few days ago is now in retreat. Santa probably won't deliver that present until the new year, assuming that the politicians in the US do cobble together some sort of deal. Looking at the FTSE and Dow daily, it does look like they are in the process of a move down, indicators look negative, the only hope being that the latest 20/50 dma crossover to the upside does appear to be offering the potential for support. Price is currently hovering between the 20 and 50 dma. However, the charts are telling us that the markets are set up for Fiscal Cliff failure if no deal is made.

Charts:

Should Vodafone cut its dividend?

One of the few things that Vodafone has going for it at the moment for investors is its dividend. The current dividend yield is between 6-7%, helped by the potential of growing payments to the company from its investment in Verizon Wireless. So, it will perhaps come as a surprise, especially to Vodafone investors, that at least one view from the city seems to be suggesting that the company should cut its dividend. Here's what Nomura had to say in a release today.

"Paying an inflated ordinary dividend has been discredited as a way to reward shareholders, it restricts strategic flexibility and it leaves Vodafone dependent on Verizon Wireless cash flows which compromises its ability to negotiate with Verizon. A review of cash return policy is overdue, we believe."

http://www.digitallook.com/cgi-bin/dlmedia/security.cgi?csi=10097&action=news&story_id=20580488

So, reading between the lines are they saying cut the dividend? Invest the money elsewhere in the business? Nomura does seem to think that the licence renewal for a company like Vodafone could act as a drag on the company and its share price for years to come.

The broker estimates Vodafone's spectrum bill to be at least £1.5bn annually for 2013-2016 (year-end March) and £20bn over 10 years. For the current financial year (ending March 2013), spectrum costs will be around £3bn, reducing controlled cash flow to £2.2bn, well below the dividend cost (£4.9bn).

Is the Vodafone dividend safe? Probably for now as I suspect that any announcement of a dividend cut on top of all the other perceived bad Vodafone news would see the share price going lower given the poor sentiment that surrounds the company at the moment. However, the fact that one city voice is suggesting, in their words, that "paying an inflated ordinary dividend has been discredited as a way to reward shareholders", suggests that Vodafone has a lot to do to improve sentiment towards it going into 2013.

Knocking on the door of FTSE 6000

Well, it seems to be getting closer, I write this at 5975 and the FTSE100 is on the verge of touching 6000. A month or so ago this seemed about as likely as England winning a cricket Test Series in India, but life is full of surprises. Given the momentum behind the market right now it will probably be more of a surprise if it doesn't get to 6000 from here, the peak is now within touching distance. Looks like the Santa rally did arrive after all, although with just a few more trading days left for this year, there is still room, one way or another, for a Fiscal Cliff surprise.

Some observations on choosing a time frame to trade

This is a follow up to the post what time frame are you trading/investing in.

Choosing a time frame to trade that fits your personality and psychological makeup is one of the most important steps to make if success is to be achieved in the trading game. Some people like action, fast moving markets and volatility while others prefer a more slower, cautious approach. It's difficult to be able to do both and can be a nightmare if you get involved in a type of trading that you are simply not suited to, so it's better to find out as early as possible what time frame of trading you feel comfortable with. However, each time frame that can be traded throws up its own questions, so based on my own experience I thought I would post a few observations.

First, short term trading. I found very quickly that this did not suit me. To be a good short term trader, day trading where you may be using the tick,1, 3 or 5 minute chart, you have to be able to handle volatility and market noise. Many of the market moves over the very short term time frames are noise, with many potentially false signals, not only do you have to be able to trade quick, but also get rid of potential losing trades quickly. On shorter time frames potential big moves while they do happen tend to be rare. While it's certainly possible for those with the right psychological makeup to make decent money on perhaps just 5-10 winning points a day, no one should kid you that it's easy. If you like action then this time frame may be for you, but by and large, at least according to many reports, most traders, especially spread bettors who choose this "action" type day trading tend to lose.

No Christmas love for Vodafone

Despite the FTSE continuing to show a desire to rise as we go into the Christmas period, one company that just happens to be one of the biggest market caps in the index,Vodafone, just cannot seem to do anything to find any market love.

Vodafone's share price has been in a relentless fall, a look at any chart on more or less any time frame shows a series of red with just occasional hints of blue (or green in the case of the charts below), the latest fall this week coming because the market feels that Vodafone overpaid for its Dutch 4G airwave licence. With other countries, including the UK, getting ready to sell their licences there is a feeling that cash strapped Governments will raise the bar as high as they can get away with and telecoms companies like Vodafone will get taken for a ride.

Whatever happens, this is just another in a long line of bad news flow, at least as interpreted by the market, to further hit the share price. However, the warning signs were there in the charts, especially after the share price was  up to over 190p a few months ago, a potential top could be seen and since then it's been one of the most slowly grinding relentless sell offs in the FTSE index. Both the Weekly and Monthly chart look pretty ugly. Even worse, the fall looks in its early stages on the Monthly chart. If there is a saving grace for the moment it is that support is at the current 156-158 level and the price has just touched the 200 dma on the Weekly chart.

This is still a falling knife and even though Vodafone is in the market to buy its own shares right now with the Verizon dividend (Vodafone begins buyback), it isn't doing much thus far to prop up the ailing share price. Still, I suppose they might consider they are buying cheap. Charts suggest it might just get cheaper.

Charts:

Video market round up for week ending 14th December

A week ending round up of the markets from Steve Briggs YouTube channel.

A review of the markets for the last trading week, including the FTSE100, S&P, Dow and Dax.

Links:

Steve's YouTube site http://www.youtube.com/user/sjb5555.

Useful charts and analysis can also be found at http://www.flickr.com/photos/stevebriggspics/

HMV, struggling to find any Christmas cheer

HMV has been in decline for some time, fighting a rearguard action against the tide of technology that is moving away from its core products CD's, DVD's, a once member of the FTSE250 now languishes with the smaller company minnows, its share price at around 2.5p a mere fraction of the glory days of 225p+. The HMV story has been one of a classic value trap all the way down to its current sorry state and no matter what the company has attempted to do to put things right, another bolt to its chances of surviving always seems to be just around the corner.

So, today's news of further decline in sales and a probable breach of its banking agreement in the new year offset the news a few days ago that its suppliers were backing it over the Christmas period with financial support, the shares are currently down 35% so far on the day.

...conditions meant the business was facing "material uncertainties" and warned of a "probable covenant breach at the end of January 2013".

But, the chain added that it was in "constructive discussions" with its banks and was keeping them fully informed on current trading.

First-half sales at HMV slipped 13.5pc to £288.6m, while like-for-like sales fell 10.2pc, with the chain saying it had been affected by a "poor release schedule" across the summer months as suppliers avoided events such as the Diamond Jubilee.  

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/retailandconsumer/9741691/HMV-faces-probable-banking-agreement-breach.html

Losses of £37.3million were actually down from £48.1million for the same period from the previous year, but apparently Christmas is off to a slower than expected start this year. HMV has always made most of its money in the second half, especially over the Christmas period, can they afford for it to be a bad one? Much will depend on the banks that back them.

Unlike Dixons and Home retail Group (Argos), HMV has not been able as yet to turn things around and is now a pure gamble play on any long term recovery. It's the type of share which at a price of 2.5p you would simply buy and probably forget, but only with money that you can afford to lose and assuming you think that there is still the potential there for recovery. If it goes under and there is a chance of that, then you gambled and lost. If it recovers then there is the potential of a Dixons type gains from here. The problem is that its debt makes HMV the Greece of the UK High Street and one wonders how it can ever get back to making enough profit to repay what it owes. As the last man standing in entertainment retailing on the UK High Street, the last thing HMV needs is another bad Christmas.

IDOX delivers

Mentioned IDOX about a month ago, the results from which came in today and they did not disappoint (Public Sector watch, IDOX).

AIM-listed software and services provider IDOX posted a 50 per cent rise in its revenue to 58m pounds in the year ending October 31st, according to annual results published on Wednesday morning.

Adjusted profit before tax was up 36% to £14.8m from £11.6m a year earlier and earnings before goodwill, impairment, amortisation, depreciation, restructuring, corporate finance and share option costs rose 44% to £16.7m. 

http://www.sharecast.com/cgi-bin/sharecast/story.cgi?story_id=20560559

And despite the rise in share price over the last month or so longer term there could be more to come. The shares were up 4.8% today.

 

Market Update - FTSE100

The FTSE100 is still looking positive as we go into Christmas and the possible Santa rally, but is it possible that the market is running out of steam? The recent run is now well extended and it could be that Santa came early this year.

The last few days have seen the market largely going nowhere, no doubt waiting on more Fiscal cliff news, but the charts are beginning to look more positive towards a continuing move to the upside, although it is tentative. We have a 20/50 dma crossover to the upside, backed up by various indicators. The potential negative is that the FTSE is now facing resistance and the MACD on the daily chart could be weakening, the market might not go much further without good news to push it on. Still, the charts are nicely set up for a Fiscal cliff move to the upside if a deal comes in the next week or so. However, if there is no deal or the talks suddenly go bad, then we could see that MACD weakness on the daily chart roll over quite quickly as we get the next downward move. On balance and given no bad news, the charts look better for bulls than bears, but after the recent run you would expect a pullback soon anyway. 

Charts:

Vodafone begins share buyback

In its latest report to the market Vodafone announced that it would use this year's Verizon dividend to buy back its own shares. It looks like this may well have begun.

The instruction to Barclays will run for the period from 10 December 2012 and end no later than 20 February 2013 (the "Period"), for an amount of no greater than £550 million, as is determined in accordance with the agreement between Vodafone and Barclays.

The purchase of Shares in the Period by Vodafone following the agreement with Barclays and the £1.5 billion share buyback programme will be executed at all times only in accordance with Vodafone's authority to make market purchases of Shares.

http://www.4-traders.com/VODAFONE-GROUP-PLC-4006195/news/Vodafone-Group-plc-Transaction-in-Own-Shares-15583873/

Vodafone Group PLC (VOD.LN) said Tuesday that it has purchased 7.5 million of its ordinary shares on the London Stock Exchange from Barclays Capital Securities Ltd. at 161.4013 pence per share, which will be held in treasury.

http://www.4-traders.com/VODAFONE-GROUP-PLC-4006195/news/Vodafone-Group-plc-Vodafone-Group-Buys-Back-7-5-Million-Shares-161-4013P-15586686/

Given the share price has lagged recently the size of this buyback may help support the price, but whether the low (Vodafone - where's the bottom?) is in for the company remains to be seen.

TARP now more than 90% repaid, but how?

You might have thought that a headline of TARP almost being repaid would be met by cheers in the markets and I seem to remember that at the time some thought that the money going to TARP would never be repaid or that as the financial world was ending there would be worse to come. Regardless of the rights and wrongs of the various bailouts, and there is a lot to be annoyed about in rescuing the feckless, it might come as a surprise to some that TARP is apparently 90% repaid.

The U.S. Treasury said Tuesday more than 90%, or about $380 billion, of the $418 billion spent under the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) during the financial crisis has been recovered through repayments and other income.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/tarp-program-now-more-than-90-repaid-us-2012-12-11

The trouble is, does this tell us the entire story? Perhaps not, back in July of this year it was reported that many of the banks that had borrowed TARP funds were in fact repaying with further Fed loans.

Of the 707 banks that received taxpayer money from the government's Troubled Asset Relief Program starting in 2008, also known as TARP, about half have repaid the Treasury.

However, 137 of those banks used a government-loan program to repay their taxpayer debts, according to the quarterly report to Congress of the Office of the Special Inspector General for TARP.

Of the 325 banks still propped up with taxpayer money, 203 have missed dividend or interest payments, with some missing as many as 13 payments since receiving capital injections at the height of the financial crisis, the report said. 

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/48313448/ns/business-us_business/t/many-tarp-banks-used-federal-loans-repay-taxpayer-debts/

The financial system is such that as usual all is not necessarily as it seems on the surface.

IG Group, still looking for volatility

A while back I posted that spread betting provider IG Group seemed to be a company that needed volatile markets to help it go forward (IG Group, a company that needs volatility), today we see more evidence to back this up.

Revenue in the period was £169m, 14% lower than the prior year's. Sales for the second quarter, at £87.5m, were 7% higher than in the first quarter although still 9% behind the prior year. 

The group said the performance reflected the particularly tough comparators which the group faced due to extreme levels of volatility in financial markets in 2011 and the continuing subdued markets which were impacting client activity currently. 

During the period the business did respond well to short spells of heightened market activity and continued to grow market share in its biggest markets. 

http://www.digitallook.com/news/20557816/First_half_revenue_falls_at_IG_Group_as_volatility_remains_muted.html?username=&ac=

The chances are that if and when the markets become volatile again, IG and other spread betting companies will probably do well, but what do they offer if it doesn't happen? In the case of IG a decent enough dividend, but they need clients to want to trade and subdued markets seem to dampen that. The unfortunate thing for spread bettors however, is that while they may well crave volatility most of them are probably going to lose if it happens.

Average Brit to make a million by 56 according to the Pru'

No, that doesn't mean that every Brit will win the lottery by the age of 56, but according to the Prudential that's the amount of money that Mr and Mrs Average would expect to earn by that age. For men it's even better, you should expect to reach the figure by 50 while for women, still lagging behind in the money equal opportunities stakes, it is 72. By 65 you should expect to hit the £1.2 million mark. Along the way however, you will on average pay £137,101 in income tax and £84,129 in income tax mark 2 otherwise known as National Insurance.

Of course, most of the above will be well and truly understated if you happen to be in your 30's now given the rate of monetary credit inflation that banks and central banks like to create. Winning a million on the lottery probably won't be much help in 50 years time either, by then it will probably be lottery billions.

http://www.moneyvista.com/news/news-articles/average-brit-to-make-a-million-by-age-56/

Tesco to give up on the USA?

Tesco reported to the market today and while expectations were low on what to expect, the company did actually say something that the city has probably wanted to hear for some time, that the company is considering what to do with its loss making US operation, Fresh and Easy.

It is now clear that Fresh & Easy will not deliver acceptable shareholder returns on an appropriate timeframe in its current form.

We have therefore appointed Greenhill to assist with the review of options. In recent months, we have had a number of approaches from parties interested in acquiring either all or part of Fresh & Easy, or in partnering with us to develop the Fresh & Easy business. We will communicate progress on this process when we present our full year results for the current financial year in April 2013.

http://www.digitallook.com/news/rns/20544734-10091/TSCO-Strategic_Review_of_Fresh_Easy_html

The chances are that this side of the business will be sold or at the very least a US based partner will be taken on, I expect it will be the former. There is a good chance that once this decision is finalised, Tesco's share price could see a boost, if only because it is one less negative for them to worry about. They got out of loss making Japan, so no one should be surprised if and when they do exit the US.

AIM stocks in ISA's from next year?

For UK investors perhaps one of the best things to come out of today's Autumn statement is that from next year AIM stocks may be allowed into ISA's. I say may because while the Twittersphere was saying that they would be allowed from 2014, it was clear that many hadn't read or heard what Chancellor Osborne actually said, so here it is.

And we will consult on allowing investment in SME equity markets like AIM to be held directly in stocks and shares ISAs, to encourage investment in growing businesses.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/budget/9724128/Autumn-Statement-2012-the-full-speech.html

So, it actually says that he will consult about allowing AIM stocks to be held in ISA's. Chances are that it may well happen, but consult means what it says, they could decide against it - after consultation.

 

FTSE100 Update

Surprisingly perhaps, the FTSE 100 is actually looking more positive on the longer term charts. It's a surprise because over the weekend lots of negative comment regarding the US fiscal cliff seem to dominate the financial news. So far this week the markets seem to have taken it in their stride. In part this is a continuation of the recent recovery trend that can be seen on the charts, but it also might be suggesting that despite all the political position taking by the politicians, the markets are pricing in a deal that has to happen. There is some justification for this as history shows.

....seasoned Washington hands say that once this rather gloomy back and forth has played out - and it might take another week or more - the work towards reaching a solution that both sides can sell to their parties and their lawmakers will begin in earnest.

A deal by Christmas, a week before the fiscal cliff deadline, remains uncertain but not out of the question. The so-called fiscal cliff is a combination of U.S. government spending cuts and tax increases due to be implemented under existing law in early 2013 that may cut the federal budget deficit but also tip the economy back into recession.

The pattern of little happening until very close to a holiday is well-established on Capitol Hill. The past three pre-Christmas seasons brought important eleventh-hour developments on health care in 2009, tax cut extensions in 2010 and the payroll tax holiday in 2011.

It's so ingrained that many Capitol Hill veterans routinely, and sometimes mistakenly, dismiss as theater pronouncements of progress or stalemate that occur more than a few weeks before the holiday.

"The Congress doesn't work on the clock; it works on the calendar," said Republican Senator Roy Blunt of Missouri, who in 15 years of serving in Congress, including leadership jobs, has been through plenty of tough scrapes.

"There is just that required moment when something has to happen because you've run out of time," said Blunt. In the meantime, "there is a desire to maximize your negotiating position until you realize you don't have any room any more to negotiate. It almost invariably works that way."

http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2012-12-03/news/sns-rt-us-usa-fiscal-congressbre8b205w-20121202_1_fiscal-cliff-representatives-john-boehner-payroll-tax-holiday

So, there you have it, politics will play its part and its a system where things regularly go down to the wire because that is part of the game. On this occasion neither side will want to be seen as being responsible for there being no deal that results in a panic and puts the US economy back towards recession.

For the markets the time up to Christmas with no deal in sight is still likely to be a rocky one, but if a deal is reached then the charts suggest we are setting up to go higher. The Santa rally may still be on.

Charts:

Video market round up for week ending 30th November

A week ending round up of the markets from Steve Briggs YouTube channel.

A review of the markets for the last trading week, including FTSE100, S&P, Dow and Dax.

Links:

Steve's YouTube site http://www.youtube.com/user/sjb5555.

Useful charts and analysis can also be found at http://www.flickr.com/photos/stevebriggspics/

Sportingbet, losing its shine?

What with the potential takeover of Sportingbet by William Hill and GVC Holdings still in limbo you might think that producing a poor set of results could be a negative on proceedings and explains a little why the company share price has fallen to around 45p. Actually, for the purpose of the takeover, parts of today's results are probably welcomed better than others.

The BBC reports;

Online gambling firm Sportingbet has reported a fall in first quarter revenues citing "challenging" conditions."

European online poker revenue collapsed nearly 50% reflecting "continued structural decline" of the game, the company said.

The total amount wagered in the three months to 31 October fell to £594.3m, compared with £693.7m for the same quarter last year.

Group revenue fell £21m to £38.8m.

Group chief executive Andrew McIver said: "It was a challenging first quarter but a very strong November".

Sports margins in Australia had been "particularly strong", the company said, after a 29% increase in active customers and rapid growth in the amount being wagered via smartphones and other hand-held devices.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-20551977

Looking at that report again we see the word "challenging" being used quite a bit (key words in company reports). Could it also be a signal of challenging conditions for the likes of William Hill and Ladbrokes when they next report? Perhaps not, but 2013 might not be as rosy for them as recent times. (Panorama, undercover in the bookies)

However, it was reported before that William Hill were particularly interested in the Australian growth side of the Sportingbet business and they will look at the "particularly strong" results there with interest. Sportingbet investors hoping for that 60p+ pay off may be hoping that the takeover gets sorted sooner rather than later.

Monitise update - placing is on the cards

When I first wrote about this one a while back I made the point that it wasn't one for widows and orphans, today perhaps shows why. The company announced to the market that it is looking to raise £100 million extra capital, it would seem to expand. The statement was full of positives, but the market seems to have taken a dislike to the news falling around 9% so far. Monitise investors might live with that had it not been for the fact that it has already fallen from a recent high of almost 40p to around 33p before today's news. Looks now that it may well fall below the 30p mark.

Mobile banking technology firm Monitise has admitted it is in discussion to raise up 100m pounds. 

The company said it was talking to Canaccord Genuity and certain institutional and strategic investors "to take advantage of significant opportunities represented by mobile banking, payments and commerce". 

Proceeds from the proposed placing would be used to fund new Mobile Money products for financial institutions and payments companies, the firm said, particularly in terms of mobile commerce capabilities. 

The announcement was forced by press speculation into Monitise's plans to raise money. 

Chief Executive Alastair Lukies said the business was seeing enormous demand for Mobile Money services. 

http://www.digitallook.com/cgi-bin/dlmedia/security.cgi?csi=233171&action=news&story_id=20531938

The trading update was also impressive in terms of potential;

Wood Group sell off, one to watch.

The FTSE100 is feeling slightly more cheery today with the hope of a fiscal cliff deal coming sooner rather than later, but one company is not sharing in the cheer, Wood Group. The oil services company was recently promoted from the FTSE250, but hasn't really shown much in terms of share price performance. However, the price is down around 4% as of writing because of some family selling.

Wood family trust and members of the Wood family have sold 4.4% - 16.3m shares which represent their total stake - at 775p each through Credit Suisse, raising around £126m. Sir Ian Wood, the departing chairman and grandson of the company's founder, said he had no current intention to sell his 2.4% shareholding.

The news has sent Wood Group's shares down 33p to 782p, a 4% decline which makes them the biggest faller in a rising FTSE 100. But Oriel Securities said this was a good opportunity to buy into the company:

Overall we think [its] strong international position in offshore facilities, subsea and production support leaves the company well placed to take advantage of increasing industry spending.

Andrew Whittock at Liberum Capital kept a hold rating and said:

Given the family's apparent lack of interest in the business we would not read anything into this share sale.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/marketforceslive/2012/nov/29/ftse-eurozone-us-wood-group

Not more fiscal cliff worries surely? Or even hope?

So, the market news has again been dominated by fiscal cliff worries that either go up or down depending on fears of not enough progress being reported, no news at all, or grabbing the occasional statement from a participant that gives a little hope. Markets the last couple of days have been going up on this hope.

Last night US stocks pared losses after Republican Speaker of the House John Boehner said that he was “optimistic that we can continue to work together to avert this crisis sooner rather than later.” He said that Republicans were willing to put “revenue on the table” as long as it is accompanied by spending cuts. 

Furthermore, Obama told the public in a press conference the same day to pressure Congress to act to avert the automatic tax increases, saying: “When the American people speak loudly enough, lo and behold, Congress listens. 

“So today I’m asking Congress to listen to the people who sent us here to serve. I’m asking Americans all across the country to make your voice heard.” 

http://www.digitallook.com/cgi-bin/dlmedia/security.cgi?csi=50058&action=news&story_id=20531224

You can, more or less, read whatever you want into these statements. Boehner is basically saying what he has said before, taxes are on the table as long as there is give on spending cuts. No one knows how big a "give" though, or whether the price of Republican support on tax hikes for the rich, means much bigger cuts in more Democratic supported social programs. Obama's appeal to the people can also be seen as a negative, suggesting that he wants to put pressure on Congress from voters to get the deal done. The positive side is that both are still talking sooner rather than later on a deal, but they've only got a few weeks to do it.  After that, no deal and you can be sure that the markets will throw another fit of displeasure and probably head south.

The markets do seem to be in a set pattern of behaviour when it comes to picking the potential crisis as an excuse for the latest sell off.  All of these crises, at least since 2008, never quite reach absolute crisis proportions, but do enough to leave uncertainty, much of it more to do with the markets own fears of what potentially might happen rather than what actually does happen.

FTSE100 - running on or out of steam?

As we start a new week it will be interesting to see if the markets can maintain the upward momentum of last week as we go in to December. I've added the momentum indicator to this chart which suggests that the current bounce is somewhat weak. If we are going to see a December rally that leads up to a Santa rally then the markets will probably need to find some good news from somewhere. An early US fiscal cliff deal will probably seal it, but right now the current move looks weak with price hanging around a faltering 50dma. If there is any conviction in last week's move then any pullback needs to be a small one, perhaps not much lower than 5700. Anything below 5650 could indicate a bigger downward trend in place.

FTSE100

 

Video market round up for week ending 23rd November

A week ending round up of the markets from Steve Briggs YouTube channel.

A review of the markets for the last trading week, including FTSE100, S&P, Dow, Dax and CAC. This week also includes a look at UK FTSE100 shares, SABMiller, Vodafone and Barclays.

Links:

Steve's YouTube site http://www.youtube.com/user/sjb5555.

FTSE100 - where next?

FTSE 100 has bounced a little from the falls of last week, is it of the dead cat variety before falling further or a signal that it still wants to go higher? The FTSE hasn't fallen as much as the US markets and even though we have a 20/50 crossover to the downside on the chart it could be leveling off and hasn't been that steep. MACD is also heading upwards, but is still below the zero line. The chart still looks negative, but could go either way at the moment.

And we could be setting up for a Santa rally.

FTSE100

Moody by name, moody by nature, who'd trust a ratings agency?

So, no great market reaction to the downgrade of France by the ratings agency Moody's yesterday.

France said its economy was sound and reforms were on track after credit ratings agency Moody's stripped it of the prized triple-A badge due to an uncertain fiscal and economic outlook.

Monday's downgrade, which follows a cut by Standard & Poor's in January, was expected but is a blow to Socialist President Francois Hollande as he tries to fix France's finances and revive the Euorzone's second largest economy.

"The rating change does not call into question the economic fundamentals of our country, the efforts undertaken by the government or our creditworthiness," Finance Minister Pierre Moscovici told a news conference on Tuesday.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/11/20/uk-france-moodys-idUKBRE8AI17I20121120

Video market round up for week ending 16th November

A week ending round up of the markets from Steve Briggs YouTube channel.

A review of the markets for the last trading week, including FTSE100, S&P, Dow. This week also includes a look at UK FTSE100 shares, Royal and Sun Alliance, Vodafone, SSE and ITV.

Links:

Steve's YouTube site http://www.youtube.com/user/sjb5555.

Is the market setting up for a Santa rally?

Well, it's back to all doom and gloom right now, after all, the markets were not aware of the prospect of a fiscal cliff in the US a few weeks ago were they. That is of course cynicism, but this is the way markets seem to behave, from almost one extreme to another. One minute the market seems to think that the problems out there are going to be solved, any bad news is brushed aside, etc, markets are going up. Next minute, everything is suddenly gloomy again, good news is ignored, put to one side or overlooked in favour of a bit of doom. The bears and gloom and doomers' are back in force, not that they ever go away, but there has been a change in recent weeks that supports the more negative stance.

Charts were telling us of this potential change in trend a few weeks back, the spring/summer upward run seemed to be exhausting itself and now a downward trend appears to be setting in, the question is for how long?

A few weeks back I mentioned whether we would have the traditional Santa rally this year. At that time the market hadn't sold off and it was difficult to see how an upside could be maintained through to the new year. There was the prospect of further bad news, topping it all being the US fiscal cliff talk which is now looming over the market as we head into December.

Sportingbet, William Hill, GVC takeover update 2

Looks like this one may go to the wire as William Hill gets an extension on the deadline.

(Reuters) - William Hill (WMH.L), Britain's largest bookmaker, has been given until next month to submit a formal bid for online gaming company Sportingbet (SBT.L) following a 530 million pounds ($841 million) takeover approach.

The Takeover Panel, which oversees mergers and acquisitions, has extended the deadline for an offer until 1700 GMT on December 4 to allow discussions to continue between Sportingbet, William Hill and joint bidder GVC Holdings (GVC.L), Sportingbet said.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/11/13/uk-sportingbet-william-hill-idUKBRE8AC07M20121113

Meanwhile the share price of both William Hill and Sportingbet drift lower, the latter now around the 50p mark, with the potential takeover being 61p.

Is there a chance it won't happen?

The complication for William Hill is to try to separate out the Spanish business from operations in other parts of Europe where the regulations are less clear-cut.

Partner GVC is planning to acquire those operations in "grey markets" where regulatory risks are higher.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/11/13/uk-sportingbet-william-hill-idUKBRE8AC07M20121113

Previous posts;

Will Sportingbet finally get a takeover bid?

Sportingbet, William Hill, GVC takeover update

Vodafone, where's the bottom?

So, Vodafone had another bad day on the markets today. It has just about replaced Tesco as the unloved big behemoth FTSE100 company of the moment by the city. The share price has been consistently falling since hitting a high of around 192p back in August, closing today at a little over 162p.

This morning Vodafone gave its half year report and typical of a company that didn't need to surprise anyone with something that would hit the share price further, the company delivered a nasty surprise.

The Group incurred a total impairment charge of £5.9 billion in relation to the carrying value of goodwill of its operations in Spain and Italy as a result of challenging market conditions and adverse movements in discount rates.

There's that word again "challenging".

Not even the news that a Verizon dividend would actually be payable at the end of the year was enough to save further falls.

Verizon Wireless

VZW, our US associate, achieved organic service revenue growth of 8.0%* in H1 and 7.8%* in Q2. Our share of profits from VZW was £3.2 billion, up 27.4%* year-on-year. VZW's net debt declined from US$6.4 billion at 31 March 2012 to US$1.9 billion at 30 September 2012, despite spending US$3.7 billion (net) on the acquisition of spectrum in H1.

On 12 November 2012 VZW declared a dividend of US$8.5 billion (£5.3 billion), of which Vodafone's share is US$3.8 billion (£2.4 billion). The dividend is due by the end of the 2012 calendar year. The Group intends to commence a £1.5 billion share buyback programme after receipt of the dividend.

http://www.digitallook.com/news/rns/20493394-10097/VOD-Half_Yearly_Report_html

Public Sector Watch, IDOX

So many companies today do business in one form or another with the public sector. Some may rely too heavily on Government contracts while for others it is part of their business. Given the austerity measures that Government is taking right now, it is probably better to find companies that do the latter than the former. Those that rely totally on contracts with the public sector have little to fall back on if the money dries up.

IDOX is an AIM company that reported today in positive terms about its business with the public sector.

The Group's three key metrics being revenue, EBITDA and adjusted* pre-tax profit, are all expected to be comfortably ahead of consensus market expectations for the full year. Like-for-like organic growth has also been particularly encouraging in both the public sector and engineering software divisions which, together with our active acquisition programme, will deliver significant top line revenue growth for the year.

The Public Sector division continues to benefit from assisting local councils to achieve their cost savings and is expected to perform better than forecast, together with organic growth at a higher level than anticipated, due to the successful implementation within UK councils of our managed services and hosting products. The Group has been awarded a framework agreement by the Government Procurement Service for G-Cloud Services following an application and review of its Cloud offerings.

The CEO gives a good description of what is now expected from those companies doing business with the public sector.

"We continue to develop new and innovative methods to drive productivity within the Public Sector, a market which is now focused on managing costs and efficiency. Our strategy to differentiate within the Engineering Information Management sector, by being the only provider to offer a cross platform interoperable solution, is now beginning to show results and, in 2013 this division will continue the process of adding new markets to its North American core. "

The shares are up around 10% today on the expectation that the company looks forward to being comfortably ahead of consensus market expectations for the full year when it reports on 12th December. Looks like one to watch out for.

http://www.digitallook.com/news/rns/20490361-30992/IDOX-Trading_Update_html

IDOX to beat expectations in 2012

Video market round up for week ending 9th November

A week ending round up of the markets from Steve Briggs YouTube channel.

A review of the markets for the last trading week, including FTSE100, S&P, Dow. This week also includes a look at UK FTSE100 shares, Marks and Spencer, Barclays and BG.

This week's episode also looks at the City Index Trading Academy. I tend to agree with the view that so far there hasn't been much about trading methodology and on what basis the contestants actually make their trading decisions.

Links:

Steve's YouTube site http://www.youtube.com/user/sjb5555.

http://www.cityindex.co.uk/trading-academy/

Buy high, sell higher, the hardest way to invest or trade?

I came across an interesting article today which tells us a lot about our own psychology when it comes to investing or trading. Although the article itself is not about investor or trader psychology, it suggests that the way our mind works isn't always in our best interest when it comes to the investments we make. We like to buy cheap, we like to buy something undervalued and often we are tempted to catch falling knives. In short, we think that cheap is the way to go and look for strategies that fill that desire. Of course, it can work, value investing has its place. Finding undervalued, unloved sectors or companies can pay big dividends if you are prepared to wait, sometimes many years, while avoiding the dreaded value "traps" that the market lays for us.

However, there is another way, but it is a way that most investors and traders almost intuitively try to avoid, buy high and sell higher.

No one likes to buy things that are expensive, that look overpriced, that keep going up and up, sometimes with no logic to it, accept they are going up.

Here are some quotes from the article;

I want to share with you an incredibly simple strategy today... one that has consistently crushed the markets.

Now the fun, or not, begins.

So, perhaps the US markets really did want Romney to win after all?  Obama gets a second term and the markets, after a calm start, have a hissy fit and throw their toys out of the pram. At one stage the Dow was in positive territory, then later hit -300, ending up 312 down. The UK FTSE joined the early celebration party, then caught the bad mood as the day went on.

Was it thoughts of the fiscal cliff ahead or the fact that Europe came in with some less than encouraging economic numbers that gatecrashed the party? Oh, and to top the day off the Greeks, their politicians that is, are voting again on more austerity. Not much of a party going on in Greece right now.

Of the economic numbers, the one that may well have scared the market the most was news that Germany's industrial production contracted at a faster rate than expected in September. Output was down 1.8% month-on-month, instead of the 0.7% fall expected. Now people can probably see why Germany doesn't want to take on the burden of all of Europe's economic woes and why they seem to be standing pretty firm on what others should be doing to clear up their debt mess.

Obama says the best is yet to come, if anything the markets went back to the volatility of the recent past. Fiscal cliff fears will be with the market until the politicians agree on the next cobbled together compromise as surely they must. They probably don't have much of a choice.

Panorama, undercover in the bookies, bad news for William Hill and Ladbrokes?

In recent weeks, what with the Jimmy Savile scandal, the BBC flagship current affairs programme Panorama has had bigger fish to fry than last night's expose' of the UK bookmaking industry. Here's how the BBC set the scene.

Even in recession-hit Britain, the gambling industry is still making a profit - £5.6 billion last year. With casino-style gambling now available day or night at the touch of a button in our homes and on our phones, Panorama explores its popularity... and reveals a darker side.

Reporter Sophie Raworth hears from those who have found their lives spiralling out of control, and from industry insiders who say violence and frustration, linked to fast-paced high-stake gambling machines, are increasing in our high street betting shops. Panorama goes undercover in some of Britain's bookies to test those claims.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b01nm27r/Panorama_Gambling_Nation/
(BBC Iplayer link only available for 7 days, not for those outside the UK)

The fast-paced high-stake gambling machines that is referred to above have been one of the major growth areas for High Street bookies like William Hill, Ladbrokes and others. It is also an area where politicians appear keen to focus on when it comes to increasing the taxation take. The Government in this year's budget made plans for raising more in tax from the gambling machines.

Budget 2012: New gaming machines tax 'puts 11,000 jobs at risk'

Bookmakers fear 11,000 jobs are at risk after the Government unveiled a new tax on gaming and fruit machines, which is expected to cost the industry £50m a year.

It goes on;

Video market round up for week ending 2nd November

A week ending round up of the markets from Steve Briggs YouTube channel.

A review of the markets for the last trading week, including FTSE100, S&P, Dow. This week also includes a look at UK FTSE100 shares, BG Group, Admiral and Burberry.

More videos can be found at Steve's YouTube site http://www.youtube.com/user/sjb5555.

Dow, S&P and Nasdaq, downward trends in place?

Certainly looks like all three of the major US indices are trending downwards as we head into the Presidential election. Who does Mr Market want to win?  A quick search on the web suggest's opinion is divided, but here is one view that just about sums up what is likely to happen regardless of who wins.

So, what does the outcome hold for the global equity and bond markets? Have the markets already discounted the poll outcome?

Says Dr. Andrew Freris, Chief Investment Strategist (Asia), BNP Paribas Wealth Management, “The US presidential election will involve a major political problem in resolving the "fiscal cliff" issues irrespective of who wins.”

“Just like in September 2011 when there was a short-lived bloodbath in the US markets over the related issues of the US downgrade and the raising of the fiscal ceiling, the inability (or unwillingness) of the US politicians to resolve the fiscal issues before the elections, means that after 8 November and till 31 December (the fiscal deadline), there could be a lot of volatility in all equity markets,” he adds.

“There will be some changes in policy, particularly concerning fiscal issues, but overall, despite the fact that Americans are presented with a very clear choice between Obama and Romney, I don’t think we are going to see any big shifts in any particular direction, irrespective of the outcome,” noted Alastair Newton, Senior Political Analyst, Nomura in a report dated October 29.

“For big picture policy, although the election is important, we are still going to be dealing with a deeply divided Washington, where resolving some of the major challenges facing America like long-term debt and deficit issues is going to be a severe challenge,” Newton points out.

http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/web-exclusive-us-pollsits-impactglobal-markets/194421/on

Charts;

FTSE and Eurostoxx treading water

The FTSE100 recovered slightly last week, but still looks to lack any conviction about another attempt on 6000.  US Presidential election week may either give a positive boost to sentiment or knock it the other way. The 20/50 dma crossover on the FTSE is still surprisingly positive although the index seems to be stuck in a tight range at the moment. The 20/50 dma's seem to be reflecting this tightness.

Eurostoxx index shows a rare coming together and staying together of the 20/50 dma. Usually you get crossovers confirmed fairly quickly, even the ones that fail and then go back in the other direction. The dma's being this close together suggest uncertainty. Whether this is also consolidation before another move up remains to be seen.  Still could go either way. Another point to note about the Eurostoxx is the triple top that might be heading for a quadruple top, something has to give eventually.

FTSE100

Eurostoxx50

Is WM Morrison the new Tesco?

At least in the eyes of the city when it comes to being down on a food retailer? WM Morrison is a company which seems to be attracting negative news around the city right now. It looks like the ground is being prepared for disappointment around this one when it updates the market next week. The share price has been falling, brokers have lowered just about everything to do with the company, but is the worst priced in?

Panmure Gordon expects the downgrade cycle will continue at supermarket chain Morrisons, with the group seen under-performing the market all the way into fiscal 2014.

The broker is forecasting third quarter (Q3) like-for-like sales will have declined by 0.1%, which will put pressure on the profit & loss account.

"It has already announced Q1 and Q2 like-for-like sales declines of 1.0% and 0.9% (ex-petrol) respectively. Q3 has a slightly tougher comparable, but we look for a decline of 1%. New space is expected to add around 2.1% to sales growth in H1 [first half], so total sales growth should be just over 1% (ex-petrol). The last Kantar data for the 12 weeks to September 30 had Morrison growing at 0.0%, so the risk to our forecast seems to be on the downside," Panmure Gordon reckons. 

www.digitallook.com

Does the above suggest that any slight bad news will result in a Tesco "profit warning" price fall type day for Morrison next week? Tesco fell almost 20% on the back of a poor showing in its UK market back in January, could the same happen to Morrison if the numbers are even slightly lower than expected? Even though the P/E and dividend yield for Morrison are not that demanding right now, but if the market sees a profit warning coming in then the shorters could have a field day next week.

Comet, another big name UK retailer to bite the dust?

The UK High Street may be about to lose another big name icon retailer with reports that Comet is about to go into administration.

Comet, the electrical retailer, is close to going into administration, putting about 6,000 jobs at risk, reports say.

The company, bought by private equity firm OpCapita last year for just £2, has struggled from the downturn in consumer spending.

Two weeks ago, OpCapita said it was examining a number of potential bids for 240-strong chain.

But there are reports Comet will appoint an administrator imminently.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-20164228

Comet was once part of the Kingfisher Group, which has managed so far to avoid the fate of other retailers and has actually been a case of steady as she goes with a solid performance over the last 5 years. They clearly saw that the writing was probably on the wall some time ago for Comet, competing in a crowded market place with the likes of Dixons, Currys, PC World, etc. Dixons share price this morning is up around 13% at time of writing, partly due to a last man standing in the High Street approach that suggests that once Comet has gone it will pick up some market share. Same could be said for Home Retail Group.

Video market round up for week ending 26th October

A week ending round up of the markets from Steve Briggs YouTube channel.

A review of the markets for the last trading week, including FTSE100, S&P, Dow, Nasdaq, AUD/USD, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, Gold and Silver. This week also includes a look at US shares, Facebook, Apple, Amazon, UK shares ARM and AMEC. There is also a look at the General Retailers and Oil Equipment and Distribution sector.

More videos can be found at Steve's YouTube site http://www.youtube.com/user/sjb5555.

Dow touches the 200 dma

Although the US markets are currently closed due to Hurricane Sandy, futures are suggesting that the Dow is now sitting on its 200 dma.  In the past it has bounced from here, but the last time back in July/August the 20/50 dma had just gone positive whereas now it is in a crossover to the negative side. There is more negative in the current Dow daily chart than positive, but it will be interesting to see if and when any rally comes how strong it will be. The Presidential election may have something to say about that.

Dow

Would you prefer a market crash or correction?

I don't usually get involved that much on forums, other blogs, etc (mainly due to time and probably being too lazy to bother!), but occasionally I will join in a debate elsewhere. I came across an article over at the Motley Fool called Note to market please crash and posted a few responses, partly to see if people really do like to buy when share prices are falling i.e. prices are now cheap and thus jump in and catch a falling knife regardless. In the event of a market crash I've always felt that it is better to wait and buy when the charts are giving some indication of a bottom and reverse in the trend, the dust has settled. Buying against the trend can often be a nasty experience for your wallet and we've all done it! Sure, things may come back, they often do, but it isn't the right way to do things.

I get the feeling that some, mainly investors using fundamental analysis, don't like or bother with charts. There is a view that technical analysis is hocus pocus or doesn't work, whereas I tend to feel that more often than not it is our own psychology trying to interpret the action a chart is showing that doesn't work (I've been there!) I also believe that even if you are an investor who makes their choice on fundamentals, charts can help you to time your buy (what time frame are you trading investing in?). This is not the same as trying to time the market, it is about buying when the probability of the direction of the market trend is on your side. Charts tell us this as all they show is a reflection of human behaviour in a chart form - traders and investors - buying and selling. By and large, price and trend going up = more buyers than sellers, more demand, while price and trend going down = more sellers, less demand. There may well be some price manipulation of varying kinds along the way, but for the most part it isn't that difficult to understand why price goes up and down, it's supply and demand and a large dose of sentiment.

Market update - UK Techmark and Nasdaq

The Nasdaq index seems to be leading the way down if we are about to see a turn in the markets.  I've been regularly posting these 20/50 dma posts as an example to show the current trend. 20/50 crossovers are often good for many weeks or even several months, but they are lagging and should only be used as a general guide to trend.  Question is, are we now in for several weeks or months of a downward trend?  The Nasdaq is certainly looking weak, not helped by some poor earnings coming through.

The UK TechMark still seems undecided as to its next move, FTSE100 company Arm Holdings producing a good result the other day. The TechMark looks like it still has room to bounce back, but is it likely to do so if the Nasdaq continues to fall? For once, these charts look slightly out of synch with each other.

Nasdaq

TechMARK

Video market round up for week ending 19th October

A week ending round up of the markets from Steve Briggs YouTube channel.

A review of the markets for the last trading week, including FTSE100, Dow, Nasdaq, AUD/USD, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, Gold and Silver.

More videos can be found at Steve's YouTube site http://www.youtube.com/user/sjb5555.

Market update, Dow, S&P, Nasdaq

About a week ago I was reading that during this reporting season most companies had come in beating or in line with expectations, however this seems to have changed for the worse.

ADVFN reported this morning the following.

That following the sharp drops seen last Friday on Wall Street, with some observers now fearing that recent poor company earnings from several technology heavyweights -such as IBM or Google- may be a harbinger of economic weakness to come. That, at last, is what some analysts are saying as the corporate confession season trundles on.

To be had in account, this week will see another deluge of company earnings in the US, with those in Europe progressively ramping up.

According to Thomson Reuters data, out of the 8% of companies on the STOXX Europe 600 index that have reported results so far, 48% have missed forecasts.

Back in the US, of the 116 S&P 500 companies which have confessed thus far, 58% have missed on revenue expectations, as the economy took a tool on their results.

The Nasdaq seems to be leading the way on turning negative with the 20/50 crossing over to the downside. The Dow and S&P seem to be clinging on, much may well depend on how Caterpillar, Texas Instruments and Yahoo do when they report this week.

Nasdaq

Market update, FTSE 100, 250, Eurostoxx 50

We still seem to be in wait and see mode for the next market move, although increasingly things are pointing to the downside.  The basic 20/50 dma seems to be getting closer together as time goes on, the Eurostoxx index after a pretty decent run looking the weakest for a negative crossover. This type of squeeze on the moving averages is quite common before either a bounce back saving the current trend, or a crossover in the opposite direction indicating a trend change.

FTSE250 and Eurostoxx are also showing signs of a triple top, while the FTSE100 is on a double top.

FTSE100

Ignore the "experts"!

I've long been a follower of Robbie Burns Naked Trader website.  Here is a trader who has had amazing success over the years, who has managed to find a system that works for him and is reaping the benefits of joining the 10% or so that manage to make money trading. One of the amazing things about Burns is that he has consistently managed to be successful even during the financial crash.  If anything he has had his best years since 2007 and most of the time he has been on the long side. He doesn't claim to know anything about economics either and hasn't let the prevailing doom and gloom of the last 4-5 years get in the way of trading well.

Occasionally he comes up with little gems of sound advice which everyone should take heed of.  Take this from his latest update.

I got some Direct Line shares (DLG) in the IPO picking up 2,800 shares at the offer price of 175. Turns out this IPO is going to turn out okay.

One of the reasons I decided to go for Direct Line was that Investors Chronicle, Shares Magazine and most of the newspapers said not to buy it or sell it at the opening.

Doing the opposite of what so called "experts" tells you usually works out well so I bought! Going well so far! Might keep them longer term and there is a nice dividend.

Same with bulletin boards - just do the opposite of what anyone puts on those and you'll make some dough!

http://www.nakedtrader.co.uk/

Video market round up for week ending 12th October

A week ending round up of the markets from Steve Briggs YouTube channel.

A review of the markets for the last trading week, including GBP/USD, EUR/USD, gold, banking sector, gas, water & multi-utility sector, Severn Trent.

More videos can be found at Steve's YouTube site http://www.youtube.com/user/sjb5555.

Sportingbet, William Hill, GVC takeover update

Looks like this one may go to the wire, but the latest offer isn't that much of an improvement on the old one. Unless there is a change of heart it would seem that William Hill and GVC don't believe Sportingbet is worth as much as some analysts have suggested. This one could easily fall through.

WILLIAM HILL’S proposed takeover of online bookie Sportingbet looks set to go down to the wire this week, after the Sportingbet board knocked back a second bid for the company last week.

Sources close to negotiations said yesterday that William Hill, together with GVC Holdings, made an improved informal bid for Sportingbet late last week, after a formal offer of 52.5p per share was rejected last month. The new offer, at over 55p a share, was a significant improvement but still short of the 60p or more that Sportingbet wants. 

http://www.cityam.com/latest-news/second-william-hill-bid-rejected-sportingbet

They have until tomorrow to make a bigger offer or at least show that both sides want to keep on talking. Sportingbet is down around 5% so it looks like the market may well have decided it isn't likely to happen.

Original post can be found here;

Will Sportingbet finally get a takeover bid?

http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=4285330955624173039#editor/target=post;postID=2500241780786594703

UPDATE

Market Update - FTSE100

FTSE100 still seems to be undecided about the next move, but that may not be for long. The lower trend line has been broken, MA's look weaker, chart looks more negative than positive, but nothing dramatic has happened in the last couple of weeks. The market has been quiet which might indicate the calm before a storm, or the set up is in place for a December Santa rally. We look to be approaching a key moment as to where the markets are going next.

Greece, not all doom and gloom it would seem

I came across one story today which may surprise some people.  Surprise, if only because we don't expect to read anything about Greece which isn't doom and gloom at the moment.  Many might not know that recently the Greek stock market has been mounting a bit of a comeback.

From the Daily Wealth.

One month ago, we challenged readers with a question… Is Greece better off today than it was four months ago? 

We may have our answer... Yesterday, the Greek stock market challenged its high for the year.

The Athens General Share Index (ATG) is now 22% higher than where it started 2012. And it's up 73% since bottoming just four months ago.

The financial press might write headlines about a crushing debt load, 60% unemployment, and rioting in the streets. But when it comes to Greece, this chart might be the biggest story of the year...

http://www.dailywealth.com/

I also came across this on Bloomberg.