Friday 21 December 2012

Market update - A sea of red

So, after a period of Fiscal Cliff hope the markets are a sea of red this morning on the news that a Republican Plan B to reduce taxes couldn't even get enough votes from Republicans to get through Congress. However, with markets falling like a stone on such news it really does show how dumb they can be. Dumb because even though the markets seem to be going up on the news of this Plan B, it was clear from the start it was never going to get very far, President Obama had already clearly said if it got through he would veto it. 

Why then were markets going up on such news that would have lead to a sell off anyway? Plan B was never going to get anywhere yet markets were rising on false hopes. I suppose that is the way markets work, if you are looking for logic and rational behaviour then look elsewhere. At this stage with the politicians doing their usual let's take it right up to the wire act because that is what we always do as we play the game of politics, markets were clinging on to any hope. Still, the charts were showing that the current run was extended, for it to go further and extend the gains of the early Santa rally, more Fiscal Cliff good news was needed, even if a Plan B vote was doomed to fail the markets were clinging to anything.

So, FTSE 6000 which seemed very near just a few days ago is now in retreat. Santa probably won't deliver that present until the new year, assuming that the politicians in the US do cobble together some sort of deal. Looking at the FTSE and Dow daily, it does look like they are in the process of a move down, indicators look negative, the only hope being that the latest 20/50 dma crossover to the upside does appear to be offering the potential for support. Price is currently hovering between the 20 and 50 dma. However, the charts are telling us that the markets are set up for Fiscal Cliff failure if no deal is made.

Charts:

FTSE100 Daily

Dow Daily



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