How is the FTSE100 doing?

Last week the FTSE100 ended proceedings on a recent high, Draghi's failure to produce a bazooka on Thursday was outweighed by a positive US jobs number on Friday.  Market bears probably got all excited on Thursday only for it to be another shorter's false dawn come Friday.  There again, the charts have been telling us for a while that the trend is up and while you can go short within that trend, for the moment it would be unwise to fight against it.

Here's the simple 20/50 dma chart.

FTSE100

We now have some clear daylight in the moving averages, the 20/50 dma crossover to the upside has finally turned up for both ma's.

Here's another daily chart with a little more information on it, which does adds support to the simple chart above.

Looking at the indicators;

MACD - positive

Parabolic Sar (green/red dots) - positive

Sort term 5/20 dma crossover - positive

Bollinger Bands - opening to the upside - positive

Trend is up, new point of resistance at around 5810-20 approaching.  Will it hold and continue to go up?  For now, probability seems to favour more upside and while it is important to remember that indicators are lagging, for the most part a reverse in price action, which is confirmed by those indicators, tends to happen fairly slowly when using the longer timeframe charts.  We could get another shock move to the downside as can be seen by those 3 red candlesticks towards the end of July, but the general upward trend could still hold.  If we get to around 6000, that could be a major area of resistance that has been difficult to breach in recent times.

So, despite all the general bad news about the market the trend has remained up with one or two tremors to the downside.  For the moment, downside predictions are a little bit like waiting for a bus, in that if you wait long enough another one will be along in a minute.  Big falls are almost impossible to predict, I prefer to just try and stick to what the charts are telling me and make a best "guestimate" from that based on probability.  For now, the charts are still positive, momentum and the trend is up.