Friday 31 August 2012

Jackson Hole, will the market be disappointed again?

So, here we are again, another big day of news events, another possibility that by the end of the day nothing much will have been decided either way, another period of uncertainty.

Here are some of the things happening today, all of which could tip things one way or the other.

9am Italian unemployment figures for July

10am Eurozone unemployment (July)

2.45pm Chicago PMI for August

2.55pm University of Michigan confidence index for August

3pm US Factory orders for July



Speeches

3pm Fed chairman Ben Bernanke speaks at Jackson Hole

5pm Bank of England's executive director for financial stability Andy Haldane speaks at Jackson Hole

6.10pm Bank of England policymaker Adam Posen at Jackson Hole

7.30pm IMF chief Christine Lagarde at Jackson Hole

The chances are that nothing much will come out of Jackson Hole other than a restatement of previous Fed announcements that they remain prepared to act as necessary and 'that additional action would likely be warranted fairly soon', but without saying when 'soon' would be.  The trouble is that sooner or later the markets will not be able to keep on relying or hoping for the stimulus of new money creation or fresh debt, especially if taken on by Government. After all, it's Government debt which seems to be the main preoccupation of markets when it comes to the Eurozone. They have in the main closed their eyes at similar debt sitting on the books of the UK, US, and Japan.

For now, the markets are sitting on their hands waiting.  Investors will be hoping that any disappointment is already priced in, short term traders probably won't care so much because they will trade the short side if that is what presents itself.  Whatever happens, it will be a busy day for news junkies, good or bad.

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